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Topic: National Basketball Association ('14-'15) (Read 183467 times)
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #350 on:
February 21, 2016, 06:49:48 AM »
I think the Rubio stuff was more rumors than anything. One total speculation piece was in the NY Daily News and mentioned Rubio, then suddenly rumors pieces all over were saying it, but all linking back to that one (speculative) piece. Wolves' GM Milt Newton said he took, but didn't place, calls. I think it's unlikely: Rubio is actually hugely important in this season's best moments. While he's still shooting pretty poorly, his plus/minus is amazing. Basically, when he's not on the floor, we're always getting killed; when he's on, we're competitive. There was a good detail of his advanced analytics in a local blog lately showing how he's really having a great season in a lot of ways. (Last night, 16 assists, 1 turnover.) Plus he has a really good contract, just over $10 million a year. That will be really cheap as the cap blows up this summer.
Detroit had a great deadline. I loved the moves. So glad they didn't trade for the other Morris clown. The sleeper might be Motiejunas: if he gets healthy, he's a serious starting PF candidate, even over Harris. (Or Harris could move to SF.)
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #351 on:
March 25, 2016, 04:37:23 PM »
Let's pretend this thread is '15-'16, OK?
Smile Brian: I have nothing against Kevin Love, actually. He's a team player, too. Not a good defender, no. But not as bad as he's painted, either. He was in the unfortunate situation of being here in the Kahn regime, which was based on a (FULLY NECESSARY) financial revolution and some horrific gambles, be they rookies (Jonny Flynn) or young vets (Darko, Beaz, etc.). Kevin Love is being wasted on Cleveland, and I feel bad for him. i hope he goes to Boston, where he'd be the key player in a REALLY good team.
SurferDownUnder: Embiid is absolutely the question. He was looking like, well, like KAT. Mobile, skilled, athletic, improving every day. But two years of injuries? That's tough. We're talking Greg Oden, Sam Bowie, Bill Walton. Most guys don't recover. My fingers are crossed because he's so good, with so much potential. With Saric, I don't know what to make of him quite yet, it is always hard to say before a guy makes the league. We're watching Nemanja Bjelica in Minnesota get buried on the bench, despite being Euroleague MVP. And Euroleague is no joke--that is FABULOUS basketball. It's all so situational. There were plenty of guys at the WCs saying Belly was better than Mirotic, but that hasn't played out yet in the NBA. But Saric is tough and smart, which are a couple nice traits to start with. The issue will definitely be how to handle Okafor, Embiid, Saric, Noel, not to mention Jerami Grant. Too much talent at too few positions.
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #352 on:
March 25, 2016, 06:03:36 PM »
Quote from: the captain on March 25, 2016, 04:37:23 PM
Let's pretend this thread is '15-'16, OK?
Smile Brian: I have nothing against Kevin Love, actually. He's a team player, too. Not a good defender, no. But not as bad as he's painted, either. He was in the unfortunate situation of being here in the Kahn regime, which was based on a (FULLY NECESSARY) financial revolution and some horrific gambles, be they rookies (Jonny Flynn) or young vets (Darko, Beaz, etc.). Kevin Love is being wasted on Cleveland, and I feel bad for him. i hope he goes to Boston, where he'd be the key player in a REALLY good team.
SurferDownUnder: Embiid is absolutely the question. He was looking like, well, like KAT. Mobile, skilled, athletic, improving every day. But two years of injuries? That's tough. We're talking Greg Oden, Sam Bowie, Bill Walton. Most guys don't recover. My fingers are crossed because he's so good, with so much potential. With Saric, I don't know what to make of him quite yet, it is always hard to say before a guy makes the league. We're watching Nemanja Bjelica in Minnesota get buried on the bench, despite being Euroleague MVP. And Euroleague is no joke--that is FABULOUS basketball. It's all so situational. There were plenty of guys at the WCs saying Belly was better than Mirotic, but that hasn't played out yet in the NBA. But Saric is tough and smart, which are a couple nice traits to start with. The issue will definitely be how to handle Okafor, Embiid, Saric, Noel, not to mention Jerami Grant. Too much talent at too few positions.
Good points all around. I don't think Grant will see a large contract/mins increase once the tanking process ends. I think both he and Brown know what his role/service was/is about and will fit that in with the core team once its established. I am not a fan of the Schroeder signing rumour (even tho he isn't a FA for another two years). Im also unsure what we would get for Jahlil, people have suggested perhaps Beal but he is jusy another injury question if you ask me. Shabazz Muhammad interests me, what are your thoughts as a Wolves observer?
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #353 on:
March 25, 2016, 06:18:41 PM »
Quote from: SurferDownUnder on March 25, 2016, 06:03:36 PM
Shabazz Muhammad interests me, what are your thoughts as a Wolves observer?
I haven't quite made up my own mind, and that's after about 4-5 years of paying attention.
What he was: top-rated HS player in his class for some time, but mostly along the lines of some other early bloomers, if you will. Schea Cotton from the late '90s comes to mind. Basically, the idea is that he's a "guard," but as a high schooler, he's a bulky and muscular 6-5 or 6-6, meaning he's just pounding people around with strength. This kind of player, a "power guard," usually is later surpassed by his later-blooming (and taller) peers.
What he is: the thing is, Baz lost weight and totally resculpted his body. He's still strong, but is leaner, quicker. He has also worked on his jumper, so he's not just a power guard. He's also a model citizen to date, by all accounts a really good young man. His game is totally dependent on his scoring. When he comes in on this currently depleted Wolves bench, he's looking to score immediately. When he does, he tends to rebound well, defend well, and even pass the ball. When he doesn't, he shoots every time he touches it and is a sieve on defense.
What he can be: my guess is a top-notch bench player or a subpar starter. He changed his body, but until he changes his mentality, he's not deserving of starter's minutes because he only scores (yet isn't an elite scorer). I (and a love of Minnesotans) love him, but kind of hate him too. You can see where he could do more, but it's easier said than done.
On Philly the past few years, he'd be a 20 ppg guy. No question at all. The question is how valuable are his stats? What can he do to help you win (and how can he grow to help more)?
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #354 on:
March 25, 2016, 06:30:14 PM »
Quote from: the captain on March 25, 2016, 06:18:41 PM
Quote from: SurferDownUnder on March 25, 2016, 06:03:36 PM
Shabazz Muhammad interests me, what are your thoughts as a Wolves observer?
I haven't quite made up my own mind, and that's after about 4-5 years of paying attention.
What he was: top-rated HS player in his class for some time, but mostly along the lines of some other early bloomers, if you will. Schea Cotton from the late '90s comes to mind. Basically, the idea is that he's a "guard," but as a high schooler, he's a bulky and muscular 6-5 or 6-6, meaning he's just pounding people around with strength. This kind of player, a "power guard," usually is later surpassed by his later-blooming (and taller) peers.
What he is: the thing is, Baz lost weight and totally resculpted his body. He's still strong, but is leaner, quicker. He has also worked on his jumper, so he's not just a power guard. He's also a model citizen to date, by all accounts a really good young man. His game is totally dependent on his scoring. When he comes in on this currently depleted Wolves bench, he's looking to score immediately. When he does, he tends to rebound well, defend well, and even pass the ball. When he doesn't, he shoots every time he touches it and is a sieve on defense.
What he can be: my guess is a top-notch bench player or a subpar starter. He changed his body, but until he changes his mentality, he's not deserving of starter's minutes because he only scores (yet isn't an elite scorer). I (and a love of Minnesotans) love him, but kind of hate him too. You can see where he could do more, but it's easier said than done.
On Philly the past few years, he'd be a 20 ppg guy. No question at all. The question is how valuable are his stats? What can he do to help you win (and how can he grow to help more)?
This is great analysis thanks! I'm quite intrigued by the idea of him as an off the bench points producer (think shades of Beasley currently or perhaps Dion Waiters). What do you think about the age controversy with him? I'd be worried about a decline coming more quickly then with other prospects and if he is indeed a power guard the inside play often doesn't age well for that kind of player ala Lebron if he isn't careful. Do you see Shabazz as a sort of Evan Turner like man of many skills master of none? Thats what made Turner so frustrating when he was on Philly even tho I beileve he was being used wrong as is evidenced in his play im Boston.
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #355 on:
March 25, 2016, 06:38:21 PM »
Whoops, buggered up my reply but its still there next to your quote haha
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Sheriff John Stone
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #356 on:
March 25, 2016, 07:01:11 PM »
I hope you guys don't mind my chiming in. I'm still following the 76ers. I'm still a supporter of The Hinkie Plan. The problem is, or the bottom line is, you have to pick the right players. Let's take a look at Sam's picks:
2013 - Nerlens Noel - He's not a game-changer; he'll have a game with 15 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks...and then disappear for the next four games. Hasn't developed an offensive game; durability also a question mark.
2013 - Michael Carter-Williams - traded
2014 - Joel Embiid - Still hasn't played a second. I've heard/read that he probably won't play Summer League either. Forget being a star, will he ever be a dependable NBA player?
2015 - Jahlil Okafor - Could average 20 pts. per game for the next ten years, but he's a defensive liability, lacks stamina/durability, and has/had off-court problems. Still "a kid", though, just 20 years old.
So, after all of the tanking and high draft picks, disappointing frankly. Enter Jerry Colangelo. So far, though, Jerry hasn't done much. He brought in Mike D'Antoni; frankly I don't know what contribution D'Antoni has made. Ish Smith was brought in to run the offense. He started well and the team won a few games, however, has since regressed. And, finally, Elton Brand was signed to mentor (babysit?) Okafor.
This off-season is crucial. They should have two very high draft picks. From everything I've read, Dario Saric is coming over. And, hopefully Embiid will be ready by the start of next season. If all of those moves pan out, that's quite a turnover of the roster. They need a point guard badly. They'll probably retain Grant, Covington, and Smith. That COULD be a respectable roster. The PR team is saying that Sam Hinkie is still running the show, but I've also heard that Jerry Colangelo has the final say on all moves. It should be interesting.
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #357 on:
March 25, 2016, 07:35:43 PM »
Quote from: Sheriff John Stone on March 25, 2016, 07:01:11 PM
I hope you guys don't mind my chiming in. I'm still following the 76ers. I'm still a supporter of The Hinkie Plan. The problem is, or the bottom line is, you have to pick the right players. Let's take a look at Sam's picks:
2013 - Nerlens Noel - He's not a game-changer; he'll have a game with 15 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks...and then disappear for the next four games. Hasn't developed an offensive game; durability also a question mark.
2013 - Michael Carter-Williams - traded
2014 - Joel Embiid - Still hasn't played a second. I've heard/read that he probably won't play Summer League either. Forget being a star, will he ever be a dependable NBA player?
2015 - Jahlil Okafor - Could average 20 pts. per game for the next ten years, but he's a defensive liability, lacks stamina/durability, and has/had off-court problems. Still "a kid", though, just 20 years old.
So, after all of the tanking and high draft picks, disappointing frankly. Enter Jerry Colangelo. So far, though, Jerry hasn't done much. He brought in Mike D'Antoni; frankly I don't know what contribution D'Antoni has made. Ish Smith was brought in to run the offense. He started well and the team won a few games, however, has since regressed. And, finally, Elton Brand was signed to mentor (babysit?) Okafor.
This off-season is crucial. They should have two very high draft picks. From everything I've read, Dario Saric is coming over. And, hopefully Embiid will be ready by the start of next season. If all of those moves pan out, that's quite a turnover of the roster. They need a point guard badly. They'll probably retain Grant, Covington, and Smith. That COULD be a respectable roster. The PR team is saying that Sam Hinkie is still running the show, but I've also heard that Jerry Colangelo has the final say on all moves. It should be interesting.
Good to see another Sixers follower. All astute points, I agree that this offseason is crucial, especially with the rumours that Noel's morsle is suffering from the constant losses and the fact that Okafor seems to be acting out (tho not recently) in a Demarcus Cousins-esque manner. If we can target the right free agents that understand the aims of the team rather them just looking at the sixers as a team with a sh*t ton of cap room to hand out, this may just be the last season of tanking save the 2017 draft being unmissable of course (which it looks as tho it may be).
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Sheriff John Stone
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #358 on:
March 25, 2016, 08:36:54 PM »
Quote from: SurferDownUnder on March 25, 2016, 07:35:43 PM
Quote from: Sheriff John Stone on March 25, 2016, 07:01:11 PM
I hope you guys don't mind my chiming in. I'm still following the 76ers. I'm still a supporter of The Hinkie Plan. The problem is, or the bottom line is, you have to pick the right players. Let's take a look at Sam's picks:
2013 - Nerlens Noel - He's not a game-changer; he'll have a game with 15 points, 15 rebounds, 5 blocks...and then disappear for the next four games. Hasn't developed an offensive game; durability also a question mark.
2013 - Michael Carter-Williams - traded
2014 - Joel Embiid - Still hasn't played a second. I've heard/read that he probably won't play Summer League either. Forget being a star, will he ever be a dependable NBA player?
2015 - Jahlil Okafor - Could average 20 pts. per game for the next ten years, but he's a defensive liability, lacks stamina/durability, and has/had off-court problems. Still "a kid", though, just 20 years old.
So, after all of the tanking and high draft picks, disappointing frankly. Enter Jerry Colangelo. So far, though, Jerry hasn't done much. He brought in Mike D'Antoni; frankly I don't know what contribution D'Antoni has made. Ish Smith was brought in to run the offense. He started well and the team won a few games, however, has since regressed. And, finally, Elton Brand was signed to mentor (babysit?) Okafor.
This off-season is crucial. They should have two very high draft picks. From everything I've read, Dario Saric is coming over. And, hopefully Embiid will be ready by the start of next season. If all of those moves pan out, that's quite a turnover of the roster. They need a point guard badly. They'll probably retain Grant, Covington, and Smith. That COULD be a respectable roster. The PR team is saying that Sam Hinkie is still running the show, but I've also heard that Jerry Colangelo has the final say on all moves. It should be interesting.
Good to see another Sixers follower. All astute points, I agree that this offseason is crucial, especially with the rumours that Noel's morsle is suffering from the constant losses and the fact that Okafor seems to be acting out (tho not recently) in a Demarcus Cousins-esque manner. If we can target the right free agents that understand the aims of the team rather them just looking at the sixers as a team with a sh*t ton of cap room to hand out, this may just be the last season of tanking save the 2017 draft being unmissable of course (which it looks as tho it may be).
Yes, this should be the last year of tanking. Obviously, free agents weren't part of the plan over the last three years, but, hopefully, they can attract a quality player (or two?) who, like you said, sees a team on the rise. Maybe that's when Colangelo's "connections" will pay off!
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #359 on:
March 26, 2016, 06:57:59 AM »
I'm so, so happy people are talking basketball again! (I won't lie, I'm almost entirely burned out on BBs discussion. But general music, bball, and politics? Hell yes.)
SurferDownUnder: No, I wouldn't use Turner as a comp for Baz, in that Turner is by far a more complementary, versatile offensive player. Turner is almost a point forward in his approach. Baz is really, really, really focused on scoring. He loves going hard to the rim, but will also take jumpers. (Not a lot of 3s yet, and isn't really very good from there anyway. But he could get there, especially from the corners.) In fact, if he had Turner's mentality (or if Turner had Baz's athleticism), that would be a really nice offensive player.
SJS: DEFINITELY don't mind you chiming in! Here are some thoughts I have on your comments / each player.
2013 - Noel. You're right that he's not a game-changer, but I do think he's going to be a really good complementary player for some time, assuming he can stay healthy. He's a very good defender, pretty good rebounder, and while not a good offensive player, he's shooting a good percentage. I like that because it means he's not pretending to be someone he's not. What I like about him paired with Okafor is that he covers up Okafor's defensive shortcomings, which is to say lack of rim protection. For the 6th pick overall, he's a solid player. (I know everyone thinks lottery picks = stars, but history shows that's silly.) And he's still only 21, so he can definitely keep getting better.
2013 - MCW. This was actually a great transaction by Philly, selling high. That trade gets them the Lakers' first rounder in 2017 (because it's top 5 protected this year and they're bad enough to keep it this time), unless the Lakers somehow manage to get a top 3 pick again ... but with Randle, Russell, Clarkson, another top pick, and plenty of cash to spend, you have to assume they're going to be back on track. That pick will very likely be a better player than MCW, who isn't likely a starter in the NBA. He just can't shoot (yet), and isn't good enough elsewhere to make up for that shortcoming.
2014: Embiid. Definitely sad and scary. We'll see what happens, but history isn't kind to bigs with injuries.
2015: Okafor. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade him, actually ... even if Embiid can't play. They could get value for him and Noel (as he ages and adds bulk) is perhaps a more interesting option in the middle. This also frees up the PF spot for Saric. I don't worry about his off-court stuff, though. I think that was just the stupidity of youth. He has no real history of problems.
The players under contract next season are below; guys with a team option are italicized.
PG -
Kendall Marshall
SG - Nik Stauskas
SF - Robert Covington,
Hollis Thompson, Sonny Weems
PF - Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant,
Carl Landry
, Richaun Holmes
C - Jahlil Okafor, Joel Embiid
Add to that Dario Saric and a top 5 pick, plus possibly--probably?--a scoring wing via trade or free agency, and a point guard from somewhere. (Ish Smith can't be the answer...though he helped A LOT this year.) Still a bad team, but it's going to improve with Colangelo weighing in.
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #360 on:
March 26, 2016, 07:08:07 AM »
Not to get too Wolvesy on you all, but last night Minnesota topped Washington in double OT in Washington. Now sure, Washington isn't Golden State ... but they're around .500 and were a playoff team last year. Certainly not chopped liver.
The great thing was, for the second time in a week, the Wolves pulled out a win in a close game (with a home win against Sacramento earlier this week). That has been a problem all season, with our young guys tending to lose when the pressure is on. But 2nd year off guard Zach LaVine hit some huge 3s and Gorgui Dieng did the same last night; those two were also huge against Sacramento, preventing a 4th quarter comeback.
It's exciting, really reminiscient of 1996, when (rookie) Stephon Marbury joined Kevin Garnett and Tom Gugliotta to form a young and improving core. That team made the playoffs their second year together. Next year will be Lavine's and Wiggins's third season and Towns's second. I hereby predict--barring injury issues--the Wolves are a playoff team in 2016-17. Further, Towns will be an all-star.
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No interest in your assorted grudges and nonsense.
SMiLE Brian
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #361 on:
March 26, 2016, 07:32:19 AM »
Tom Gugliotta and Wally Szczerbiak are both great players that seem to be forgotten by the public at large.
Wolves in 2004
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And production aside, I’d so much rather hear a 14 year old David Marks shred some guitar on Chug-a-lug than hear a 51 year old Mike Love sing about bangin some chick in a swimming pool.-rab2591
the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #362 on:
March 26, 2016, 08:17:17 AM »
Googs was on his way to being
really
good when he was badly bitten by the injury bug. He had a 12-year NBA career, but was hurt by '97-'98 (meaning he spent about half of his career a shell of himself).
In the Wolves' first playoff year, he played 81 games--but never topped 57 games in a season again. That season, he was the Wolves' leading scorer: he averaged 20.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, and 4.1 apg. (KG was about 17 ppg and Marbury was about 15 ppg.) He got to the FT line 7 times a game and shot 82% from the line. For those into more advanced stats, his PER was 19 that year. He was an all-star that season (along with KG).
He was really useful to that team, being still relatively young in NBA years (I think it was his fourth or fifth season, after a little time in Washington, Golden State, then via trade for Donyell Marshall, Minnesota), but was 27 because he'd been a 4-year college guy. He was a really good jumpshooter inside the arc, but also could get to the line, post up, and find open teammates.
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Sheriff John Stone
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #363 on:
March 26, 2016, 08:18:50 AM »
Quote from: the captain on March 26, 2016, 06:57:59 AM
I'm so, so happy people are talking basketball again! (I won't lie, I'm almost entirely burned out on BBs discussion. But general music, bball, and politics? Hell yes.)
SJS: DEFINITELY don't mind you chiming in! Here are some thoughts I have on your comments / each player.
2013 - Noel. You're right that he's not a game-changer, but I do think he's going to be a really good complementary player for some time, assuming he can stay healthy. He's a very good defender, pretty good rebounder, and while not a good offensive player, he's shooting a good percentage. I like that because it means he's not pretending to be someone he's not. What I like about him paired with Okafor is that he covers up Okafor's defensive shortcomings, which is to say lack of rim protection. For the 6th pick overall, he's a solid player. (I know everyone thinks lottery picks = stars, but history shows that's silly.) And he's still only 21, so he can definitely keep getting better.
2013 - MCW. This was actually a great transaction by Philly, selling high. That trade gets them the Lakers' first rounder in 2017 (because it's top 5 protected this year and they're bad enough to keep it this time), unless the Lakers somehow manage to get a top 3 pick again ... but with Randle, Russell, Clarkson, another top pick, and plenty of cash to spend, you have to assume they're going to be back on track. That pick will very likely be a better player than MCW, who isn't likely a starter in the NBA. He just can't shoot (yet), and isn't good enough elsewhere to make up for that shortcoming.
2014: Embiid. Definitely sad and scary. We'll see what happens, but history isn't kind to bigs with injuries.
2015: Okafor. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade him, actually ... even if Embiid can't play. They could get value for him and Noel (as he ages and adds bulk) is perhaps a more interesting option in the middle. This also frees up the PF spot for Saric. I don't worry about his off-court stuff, though. I think that was just the stupidity of youth. He has no real history of problems.
The players under contract next season are below; guys with a team option are italicized.
PG -
Kendall Marshall
SG - Nik Stauskas
SF - Robert Covington,
Hollis Thompson, Sonny Weems
PF - Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant,
Carl Landry
, Richaun Holmes
C - Jahlil Okafor, Joel Embiid
Add to that Dario Saric and a top 5 pick, plus possibly--probably?--a scoring wing via trade or free agency, and a point guard from somewhere. (Ish Smith can't be the answer...though he helped A LOT this year.) Still a bad team, but it's going to improve with Colangelo weighing in.
Great insights, Captain. I'm impressed by your in-depth knowledge of one of the worst teams in the history of the NBA!
I really don't (strongly?) disagree with your assessments. I guess Noel is the one player we view differently. I'm not as impressed with his defense, especially against the better offensive big men in the league - the ones he will be covering. He has not stopped them and has gotten into foul trouble. I hope you're right that he can/will get better. I haven't seen significant improvement from season one through season two. Time will tell...
As I said above, from Day One, I was on board with The Hinkie Plan. Sam's goal is simple. He is trying to build a championship team, not a perennial playoff team, but a championship team. And, Sam believes that the best way to achieve that goal is with superstars, not just with very good players, but with superstars (yes, I know there is a twelve man roster to fill but you know what I/he means). So far, after three drafts, he has drafted just one realistically, potential superstar - Jahlil Okafor - and even he is flawed. As you posted, Noel is a complimentary, solid player. He's not a superstar. Will Embiid be a superstar? Saric? As you correctly stated, the Michael Carter-Williams trade was a good one, but even he was a failed, initial draft choice.
After three drafts with multiple high draft picks, Sam has not done well in achieving his goal - specifically in acquiring superstars. There are still a lot of "maybe's" - Noel, Embiid, Okafor, even Saric. What Sam HAS DONE well is acquiring assets/draft picks. But, now - NOW - is the time to convert them. This draft is critical. He has to nail his lottery pick(s), Saric has to fit, and with a little luck, Embiid will....heal.
«
Last Edit: March 26, 2016, 08:45:39 AM by Sheriff John Stone
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #364 on:
March 26, 2016, 08:41:52 AM »
The trick with "the Hinkie Plan" is that while assets are necessary and so collecting them is smart, at some point one has to cash in the chips. You can't hold the market hostage forever, forever flipping previously obtained guys for future guys (i.e., picks). So while I defended the MCW trade, for example, how long can that go on? In theory, it has to go on until you have the player around whom you can build. In reality, no number of assets guarantees you're ever going to get that guy. How many franchise players are there in the NBA at any given time? Four? Five? Of course it's possible to win a title without that kind of player ... but it's really, really rare. The Pistons did it with a cadre of god-but-not-superstars in the mid-00s, but even that is sometimes considered a fluke title.
The problem with picks is, they are sexy because they are unknown: a high pick has no flaws because he isn't a person yet. And even a young prospect is still all upside in fans' minds. The reality is, a #1 pick every year still doesn't guarantee a superstar (much less just a top 5 pick). Since 2005, the number one picks have been superstars (or superstars in the making) Kart-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, and Derrick Rose; stars (or in-the-making) Andrew Wiggins, Kyrie Irving, and John Wall; good players Andrew Bogut and--at times--Andrea Bargnani; and subpar Anthony Bennett and Greg Oden. Just under 40% are superstars, under 30% are stars, and then just under 40% are some level beneath even "average" star, rather are role players or worse. Not a good hit rate even when you have the assets. So in the end, is it really worth multiyear tanking in the hopes of being that lucky? I don't know.
A variant of the plan has been going on roughly over the same time frame in Boston, but rather than fully tanking, Boston has focused on inexpensive guys with real upside (and gotten them to play hard and well together). And they've been a playoff team. Philly probably could have done that while still being in asset-collection mode.
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #365 on:
March 26, 2016, 08:54:35 AM »
I should say, though, despite the above criticism of the idea of continuous asset hoarding, Philly is in a good position to turn it around and become a playoff team anyway (though championship contender is harder to predict, minus a superstar). In their favor:
- Their ownership is invested. Maybe misguided (if you're a Hinkie plan critic), but invested. And their recent moves to bring in Colangelo and D'Antoni prove they are willing to correct course as they see fit.
- Their management is good. Hinkie is a smart guy. Colangelo is fantastic. D'Antoni as a consultant was smart, though I predict he'll be a head coach again next year.
- Brett Brown is a top-10 coach in the NBA. He has had this team playing hard through impossible circumstances, which is a miracle.
- Their talent isn't good, but it isn't awful, as previously discussed. They have flexibility to move some duplicative pieces and balance the roster for next season.
- Cap space! If they choose to use it, they have tons of it. Every team will have some with the new TV money, but they will have loads. They could bring in multiple max guys if they wanted.
- Market: people never mention Philly anymore as a good market, but really, why not? It's in the north, yeah, so the weather isn't ideal. But it's a major market with a passionate fan base and a fabulous basketball history at all levels: high school, college, and pro.
So while I won't say the plan will work as intended (because superstars aren't guaranteed regardless of assets), a playoff team could be around the corner in short order.
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #366 on:
March 27, 2016, 03:07:16 AM »
Quote from: the captain on March 26, 2016, 08:54:35 AM
I should say, though, despite the above criticism of the idea of continuous asset hoarding, Philly is in a good position to turn it around and become a playoff team anyway (though championship contender is harder to predict, minus a superstar). In their favor:
- Their ownership is invested. Maybe misguided (if you're a Hinkie plan critic), but invested. And their recent moves to bring in Colangelo and D'Antoni prove they are willing to correct course as they see fit.
- Their management is good. Hinkie is a smart guy. Colangelo is fantastic. D'Antoni as a consultant was smart, though I predict he'll be a head coach again next year.
- Brett Brown is a top-10 coach in the NBA. He has had this team playing hard through impossible circumstances, which is a miracle.
- Their talent isn't good, but it isn't awful, as previously discussed. They have flexibility to move some duplicative pieces and balance the roster for next season.
- Cap space! If they choose to use it, they have tons of it. Every team will have some with the new TV money, but they will have loads. They could bring in multiple max guys if they wanted.
- Market: people never mention Philly anymore as a good market, but really, why not? It's in the north, yeah, so the weather isn't ideal. But it's a major market with a passionate fan base and a fabulous basketball history at all levels: high school, college, and pro.
So while I won't say the plan will work as intended (because superstars aren't guaranteed regardless of assets), a playoff team could be around the corner in short order.
You really have some deep knowledge Captain it's awesome!! Ever been on NBA Reddit or even the Sixers subreddit?
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #367 on:
March 27, 2016, 06:41:59 AM »
Nah, I used to participate in a basketball message board maybe 10 years ago or so (before Reddit existed, I think), but frankly I spend enough time online as it is. Besides, people usually end up acting like know-it-all a-holes (much like here, come to think of it). As for a Sixers sub-Reddit specifically, that's not my team by any means, so I have no special knowledge of them. I try to follow the whole league, though my attention has waned as I've gotten older and given it less time. My real basketball loves are the Timberwolves (hometown team), Gophers/Big Ten college ball, major international competitions like the Olympics and the Worlds, and most of all, the draft.
By the way, did I hear right that you're a New Zealander? I try not to be eternally turned off by Mark Dickel, then, your longtime PG of note. (I loved UNLV in the years he played, but wasn't ever a fan of his.) I do like Steven Adams, though. And congrats on Sean Marks, a former Tall Black getting the Brooklyn GM job. After his years in the Spurs organization, maybe he can lend a little credibility there, where their foundation has been nonexistent.
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #368 on:
March 27, 2016, 04:20:49 PM »
Quote from: the captain on March 27, 2016, 06:41:59 AM
Nah, I used to participate in a basketball message board maybe 10 years ago or so (before Reddit existed, I think), but frankly I spend enough time online as it is. Besides, people usually end up acting like know-it-all a-holes (much like here, come to think of it). As for a Sixers sub-Reddit specifically, that's not my team by any means, so I have no special knowledge of them. I try to follow the whole league, though my attention has waned as I've gotten older and given it less time. My real basketball loves are the Timberwolves (hometown team), Gophers/Big Ten college ball, major international competitions like the Olympics and the Worlds, and most of all, the draft.
By the way, did I hear right that you're a New Zealander? I try not to be eternally turned off by Mark Dickel, then, your longtime PG of note. (I loved UNLV in the years he played, but wasn't ever a fan of his.) I do like Steven Adams, though. And congrats on Sean Marks, a former Tall Black getting the Brooklyn GM job. After his years in the Spurs organization, maybe he can lend a little credibility there, where their foundation has been nonexistent.
Yup I'm a Kiwi, in fact I was coached by Mark Dickel for a couple of years down here and also saw Steven Adams play in our NBL (National Basketball League) when he was in high school standing about 6'10. I played power forward in HS and often marked Sam Timmins who is now on the Washington Huskies squad as a red-shirt. Dickel is an asshole so don't feel bad abouy disliking him haha
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SMiLE Brian
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #369 on:
March 27, 2016, 04:25:13 PM »
Do you know the wizard of New Zealand?
I am a serious Chicago Bulls fan depressed out of my mind since the Jordan years and Derrick Rose's decline.
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And production aside, I’d so much rather hear a 14 year old David Marks shred some guitar on Chug-a-lug than hear a 51 year old Mike Love sing about bangin some chick in a swimming pool.-rab2591
the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #370 on:
March 27, 2016, 04:36:43 PM »
Quote from: SurferDownUnder on March 27, 2016, 04:20:49 PM
Quote from: the captain on March 27, 2016, 06:41:59 AM
Nah, I used to participate in a basketball message board maybe 10 years ago or so (before Reddit existed, I think), but frankly I spend enough time online as it is. Besides, people usually end up acting like know-it-all a-holes (much like here, come to think of it). As for a Sixers sub-Reddit specifically, that's not my team by any means, so I have no special knowledge of them. I try to follow the whole league, though my attention has waned as I've gotten older and given it less time. My real basketball loves are the Timberwolves (hometown team), Gophers/Big Ten college ball, major international competitions like the Olympics and the Worlds, and most of all, the draft.
By the way, did I hear right that you're a New Zealander? I try not to be eternally turned off by Mark Dickel, then, your longtime PG of note. (I loved UNLV in the years he played, but wasn't ever a fan of his.) I do like Steven Adams, though. And congrats on Sean Marks, a former Tall Black getting the Brooklyn GM job. After his years in the Spurs organization, maybe he can lend a little credibility there, where their foundation has been nonexistent.
Yup I'm a Kiwi, in fact I was coached by Mark Dickel for a couple of years down here and also saw Steven Adams play in our NBL (National Basketball League) when he was in high school standing about 6'10. I played power forward in HS and often marked Sam Timmins who is now on the Washington Huskies squad as a red-shirt. Dickel is an asshole so don't feel bad abouy disliking him haha
Do you have the chance to see pro ball much? One of my home state's better players, Rick Rickert (a 6-11 forward) spent some time there in the late '00s. We also sent another, Dusty Rychart, roughly in that direction--he made quite a long career in Australia.
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
«
Reply #371 on:
March 27, 2016, 05:23:25 PM »
Quote from: the captain on March 27, 2016, 04:36:43 PM
Quote from: SurferDownUnder on March 27, 2016, 04:20:49 PM
Quote from: the captain on March 27, 2016, 06:41:59 AM
Nah, I used to participate in a basketball message board maybe 10 years ago or so (before Reddit existed, I think), but frankly I spend enough time online as it is. Besides, people usually end up acting like know-it-all a-holes (much like here, come to think of it). As for a Sixers sub-Reddit specifically, that's not my team by any means, so I have no special knowledge of them. I try to follow the whole league, though my attention has waned as I've gotten older and given it less time. My real basketball loves are the Timberwolves (hometown team), Gophers/Big Ten college ball, major international competitions like the Olympics and the Worlds, and most of all, the draft.
By the way, did I hear right that you're a New Zealander? I try not to be eternally turned off by Mark Dickel, then, your longtime PG of note. (I loved UNLV in the years he played, but wasn't ever a fan of his.) I do like Steven Adams, though. And congrats on Sean Marks, a former Tall Black getting the Brooklyn GM job. After his years in the Spurs organization, maybe he can lend a little credibility there, where their foundation has been nonexistent.
Yup I'm a Kiwi, in fact I was coached by Mark Dickel for a couple of years down here and also saw Steven Adams play in our NBL (National Basketball League) when he was in high school standing about 6'10. I played power forward in HS and often marked Sam Timmins who is now on the Washington Huskies squad as a red-shirt. Dickel is an asshole so don't feel bad abouy disliking him haha
Do you have the chance to see pro ball much? One of my home state's better players, Rick Rickert (a 6-11 forward) spent some time there in the late '00s. We also sent another, Dusty Rychart, roughly in that direction--he made quite a long career in Australia.
Yep I've seen plenty of pro action. Unfortunately my hometown team the Otago Nuggets folded thanks in no small parts to the actions of player coach one Mark "Sparky" Dickel. Nick Wiggins (Andrews younger brother - one time Wolf) currently plays for the Canterbury Rams.
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #372 on:
March 27, 2016, 05:32:20 PM »
I wouldn't quite call Nick Wiggins a one-time Wolf. He was on summer league / training camp roster, but that was just a courtesy move. Teams do that all the time as a favor, but there was no chance he'd actually make the (regular season) team.
I love that you're mocking Dickel. There is a perverse pleasure in knowing you thought he was an asshole: it fits my totally unfounded impression and wholly cracks me up. (By the way, I think the reason I didn't like him is that UNLV had been a really uptempo team, and Dickel played slower and was a terrible, terrible shooter. He also corresponded with their real decline. When you're going from, say, Larry Johnson to JR Rider to Kaspars Kambala, the trendline isn't good. They had just had Bill Bayno coaching (whose drinking problem at the time reportedly interfered with his performance) and recruiting talent the likes of Shawn Marion, Isaiah Epps, and Greedy Daniels, but somehow it's Dickel and Kambala who are the focus? I was sad... (Of course by then I was also moved on to rooting for Tarkanian's new home, Fresno State, and their collection of talented miscreants en route to probation.)
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SurferDownUnder
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #373 on:
March 27, 2016, 05:41:44 PM »
Quote from: the captain on March 27, 2016, 05:32:20 PM
I wouldn't quite call Nick Wiggins a one-time Wolf. He was on summer league / training camp roster, but that was just a courtesy move. Teams do that all the time as a favor, but there was no chance he'd actually make the (regular season) team.
I love that you're mocking Dickel. There is a perverse pleasure in knowing you thought he was an asshole: it fits my totally unfounded impression and wholly cracks me up. (By the way, I think the reason I didn't like him is that UNLV had been a really uptempo team, and Dickel played slower and was a terrible, terrible shooter. He also corresponded with their real decline. When you're going from, say, Larry Johnson to JR Rider to Kaspars Kambala, the trendline isn't good. They had just had Bill Bayno coaching (whose drinking problem at the time reportedly interfered with his performance) and recruiting talent the likes of Shawn Marion, Isaiah Epps, and Greedy Daniels, but somehow it's Dickel and Kambala who are the focus? I was sad... (Of course by then I was also moved on to rooting for Tarkanian's new home, Fresno State, and their collection of talented miscreants en route to probation.)
Its funny because Mark used to tell a story about how he made Shawn Marion cry, as if it was some badge of honour. His father was a really tough old school basketball coach. There was the infamous story about how when Mark was in HS coached by his father Carl, coach drew up a play for Richard Dickel (who is also an asshole but not as much as Mark, btw they have a Stephen-Mike Love style hate for each other). Come time for the inbounds Mark takes the ball as the point and hoists up a game winning buzzer beater 3 having waved Richard off. Carl makes him walk home (a good 8km from the school gym) in the middle of the Souths notoriously cold winters!
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the captain
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Re: National Basketball Association ('14-'15)
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Reply #374 on:
March 27, 2016, 05:58:00 PM »
I wonder if when Dickel thinks of the roughly $135 million Marion made in his NBA career (just on salary alone, to say nothing of endorsements),
he
ever cries...
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