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Author Topic: Politics: 2016 Lame Duck and 2017 New Administration  (Read 46080 times)
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the captain
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« on: November 10, 2016, 03:42:32 PM »

For those people who aren't interested in continuing to insult each other about the same few things and instead realize that the future remains before us, enjoy this thread. We've got a lame-duck session with the shadow of an impending Voldermort administration and two Republican-controlled houses of congress looming large.

As is always the case after an election, there is talk of the need to unify. How do you suggest this happen, and what are the odds? What might congress try to do this year? What do you hope to see from the Voldermort administration?

I'd ask that people consider the reality that the 50-plus percent of American voters who opposed each major party candidate means that obviously magical conversions of the opposition aren't realistic options. Consider the absurdity of demanding or expecting ideological purity.

My hope is that Voldermort's repeated statements about a massive infrastructure program are realized as legislation. This is something the Obama administration has sough but been stymied by the GOP House. Perhaps their GOP president can convince them that this kind of spending is beneficial, not only for the actual projects themselves, but the jobs they create and the low interest rates at which money can be borrowed to fund it all. Famously, Eisenhower underwent the massive interstate highway system. Why not do a roads, bridges, etc., program?
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ForHerCryingSoul
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2016, 05:56:49 PM »

I think a Trump administration for four years will obviously:

Repeal Obamacare (key provisions that fund it) - maybe not during the first 100 days of office, but shortly afterword.

Elect a conservative Supreme Court Justice - it is also unknown if any other vacancies will occur during his administration, but I speculate at least one other vacancy, and resulting appointment of conservative Justice, tilting the Supreme Court to Republican favor.

A strong reinforcement of the 2nd Amendment - might reopen the gun-show loophole?  In any case, this administration will allow more people to obtain guns and/or keep them.

Worsening race relations - We'll see.  Day 1 of Trump's presidency doesn't look good on either side of the spectrum.  Everyone is attacking each other.

A unified GOP (mostly) for years to come. - Establishment Republicans might as well leave at this point.  The party will push a new populist agenda.

Other, less obvious acts with a Republican senate and House will pass as well, the Democratic minority will try to filibuster, but this is what I think will actually pass:

An end to TPP and NAFTA - effectively ending Clintonist-economics

A repeal of the Net Neutrality Agreement (I don't know what this act is called, but bear with me here)

Construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline will resume

Budget cuts on anything related to the environment, education to fit with cutting of business regulations (I won't get into detail here right now), with a rise in spending on military, healthcare (Medicare, Soc. Security).  There will be points I miss here, I will not go into detail, don't spew fire in me...  I'll let someone else fill in the blanks here.
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2016, 06:03:20 PM »

I'll miss some points, so add with what you see fit.   Afro
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♩♬☮ Billy C ♯♫♩☮
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2016, 06:14:09 PM »

I think a Trump administration for four years will obviously:

Repeal Obamacare (key provisions that fund it) - maybe not during the first 100 days of office, but shortly afterword.

Elect a conservative Supreme Court Justice - it is also unknown if any other vacancies will occur during his administration, but I speculate at least one other vacancy, and resulting appointment of conservative Justice, tilting the Supreme Court to Republican favor.

A strong reinforcement of the 2nd Amendment - might reopen the gun-show loophole?  In any case, this administration will allow more people to obtain guns and/or keep them.

Worsening race relations - We'll see.  Day 1 of Trump's presidency doesn't look good on either side of the spectrum.  Everyone is attacking each other.

A unified GOP (mostly) for years to come. - Establishment Republicans might as well leave at this point.  The party will push a new populist agenda.

Other, less obvious acts with a Republican senate and House will pass as well, the Democratic minority will try to filibuster, but this is what I think will actually pass:

An end to TPP and NAFTA - effectively ending Clintonist-economics

A repeal of the Net Neutrality Agreement (I don't know what this act is called, but bear with me here)

Construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline will resume

Budget cuts on anything related to the environment, education to fit with cutting of business regulations (I won't get into detail here right now), with a rise in spending on military, healthcare (Medicare, Soc. Security).  There will be points I miss here, I will not go into detail, don't spew fire in me...  I'll let someone else fill in the blanks here.


Quote
An end to TPP and NAFTA - effectively ending Clintonist-economics

I am SO in favor of this...but the rest scare the bloody hell out of me
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the captain
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2016, 10:47:09 AM »

I see most remain more interested in fighting...

I'm not so sure about ACA repeal--but with a strong caveat: I'm entirely sure that it will technically be repealed. But because many aspects of ACA are popular when taken on their own merit, because it's politically hard to take away something already given, and politicians live to be re-elected--to say nothing of the fact that ACA was a GOP program until presented by a Dem--I wouldn't be surprised to see it's "replacement" retain huge swaths of it. Oh there will be changes, and the changes will be the left in the talking points, but it may well be more a rebranding than an actual overhaul. (I watched a Brookings Institution panel yesterday and their experts suggested something similar. I felt smart 😀)

As for race (and partisan) relations, we'll see. So far the principals are setting a good example, for the most part. It's the supporters acting like classless trash.

The "gun show loophole" hasn't been closed, as far as I know, so I don't think it can be reopened.

I'll be curious to see what happens with the evangelicals' issues, such as with gay rights, as I suspect his support for evangelicals was a put-on.

And I'll be curious to see whether Dems act like the petulant GOP of the past 8 years or can find a way to argue with dignity and work together when they can.
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SMiLE Brian
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2016, 10:53:46 AM »

Time for CNN (captain news network)? Grin
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the captain
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2016, 10:56:35 AM »

Re NAFTA/TPP, one thing that's important to remember is that the lost manufacturing jobs people bemoan aren't returning REGARDLESS of trade deals. Manufacturing is actually doing well in the USA right now...it's just done with far fewer people. We can't pretend we can roll back the clock: we need to find new jobs that are still necessary, because mechanization, computerization, and automation are replacing us, like it or not.

I don't like companies chasing the lowest costs solely for their bottom line to the detriment of their employees and communities, so don't take this the wrong way. I'm just not sure that ship can turn around again. You can't MAKE companies spend more money on unnecessary people.
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2016, 11:39:10 AM »

Re NAFTA/TPP, one thing that's important to remember is that the lost manufacturing jobs people bemoan aren't returning REGARDLESS of trade deals. Manufacturing is actually doing well in the USA right now...it's just done with far fewer people. We can't pretend we can roll back the clock: we need to find new jobs that are still necessary, because mechanization, computerization, and automation are replacing us, like it or not.

I don't like companies chasing the lowest costs solely for their bottom line to the detriment of their employees and communities, so don't take this the wrong way. I'm just not sure that ship can turn around again. You can't MAKE companies spend more money on unnecessary people.

I know, but let's not make it worse!
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the captain
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2016, 11:42:52 AM »

In my state, agricultural exports are huge, and trade agreements are a big part of that. Ditto medical devices.
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2016, 12:38:43 PM »

Trade between nations is cornerstone of economic growth and prosperity. It might be in the country's best interests to maintain the current trade policies.
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I don't see the point in punishing Brian's musical output solely because Mike wants to wow the President Elect with how long he can weeze "wheeeeeeen" into a microphone.- rab2591
the captain
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2016, 12:49:23 PM »

I don't mean to imply that any and every trade deal is inherently good--far from it. But this campaign season has seen them childishly oversimplified to mean "exodus of factory jobs," which isn't all they are, either. Reality can be complicated, but it's worth it to try to understand. Maybe name-calling and tribalism are just more fun.  Undecided
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2016, 01:10:35 PM »

Yeah industries are not as labor intensive as they were 30 years ago.
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the captain
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2016, 02:15:32 PM »

No, not even close. There was fear at the turn of the 19th to 20th century that mechanization might make work unnecessary, and people began to speculate what would happen next. Obviously we found ways to continue to employ people for the most part. But the same question is relevant again now, and far more legitimate. We see people on both sides of the aisle seriously discussing things like a national payment, "universal basic income," to all adults. Just because. It sounds crazy until you start thinking, what do we do with people who literally cannot work because there are no jobs? In the Clinton years, we heard about a pivot to a "knowledge economy," but that's optimistic: not everyone can found a start-up. And despite its growth, the service industry can't take on everyone. We don't need 150 million baristas, bartenders, hairstylists, and hotel maids. Factories have already stopped employing massive numbers. Offices have spent 30 years downsizing and will do even more as AI becomes closer to reality. It's not just any industry, it's every industry. Unless people find a new way to work, we may simply not have enough jobs--not because of outsourcing, but because they simply won't be necessary.
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2016, 06:03:57 AM »


I'm not so sure about ACA repeal--but with a strong caveat: I'm entirely sure that it will technically be repealed. But because many aspects of ACA are popular when taken on their own merit, because it's politically hard to take away something already given, and politicians live to be re-elected--to say nothing of the fact that ACA was a GOP program until presented by a Dem--I wouldn't be surprised to see it's "replacement" retain huge swaths of it. Oh there will be changes, and the changes will be the left in the talking points, but it may well be more a rebranding than an actual overhaul. (I watched a Brookings Institution panel yesterday and their experts suggested something similar. I felt smart 😀)

I hereby declare myself a genius!  LOL LOL  I saw that Trump has now said he may support amending rather than repealing the ACA, and favors keeping some of the popular parts of it (which of course can't really be done without keeping the unpopular--e.g.,, paying for it--parts). The reality of politics is, there ends up being a reality to politics. People complain about politicians, but they "go establishment" because there are realities to governance. Campaign rhetoric is nonsense, and it's unfortunate that's the part of politics that gets attention (and that candidates find it necessary ... though it is, because hyperbole is the only thing that gets anyone's attention).
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2016, 06:13:27 AM »

For the record, that means in the first three-plus days since the election, we have seen signals of:
  • A metaphorical rather than physical wall, probably supplemented with some smaller walls, without pushing for Mexico to pay. (Gingrich to supporters.)
  • Moderation on the ACA repeal and replace (Trump)
  • No prosecution of Sec. Clinton (Trump)
  • The typical use of paid lobbyists to fill (the 2,000 or so...) political positions within various agencies. Drain the swamp, eh? We now have a Big Food lobbyist overseeing Ag positions, a climate change denier at EPA, an oil lobbyist at energy, and a telecom lobbyist at FCC (to say nothing of rumors of Jamie Dimon to lead Treasury)

For better and worse (in certain ways), I expect the Trump administration to be basically a modern Republican administration, with the primary difference being a purely symbolic president with a penchant for going off script and saying things that cause problems for his staff and the country. But if people thought Cheney was too powerful, I don't think they'll care for the Pence-Trump dynamic. Remember the reported (but denied) incident of Trump, via Kushner, offering Kasich the opportunity to be VP and basically do all the work while Trump would "make America great again?" I think that's exactly the deal Pence is getting.
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2016, 06:32:06 AM »

No, not even close. There was fear at the turn of the 19th to 20th century that mechanization might make work unnecessary, and people began to speculate what would happen next. Obviously we found ways to continue to employ people for the most part. But the same question is relevant again now, and far more legitimate. We see people on both sides of the aisle seriously discussing things like a national payment, "universal basic income," to all adults. Just because. It sounds crazy until you start thinking, what do we do with people who literally cannot work because there are no jobs? In the Clinton years, we heard about a pivot to a "knowledge economy," but that's optimistic: not everyone can found a start-up. And despite its growth, the service industry can't take on everyone. We don't need 150 million baristas, bartenders, hairstylists, and hotel maids. Factories have already stopped employing massive numbers. Offices have spent 30 years downsizing and will do even more as AI becomes closer to reality. It's not just any industry, it's every industry. Unless people find a new way to work, we may simply not have enough jobs--not because of outsourcing, but because they simply won't be necessary.
Reduce weekly hours and increase vacation time.
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2016, 06:40:14 AM »

I would (probably obviously) strongly support that. But it certainly would be an uphill battle to convince private businesses to finance that idea without government subsidies to do it. That's one of the benefits of the UBI idea, as I understand it. Frankly I'm already opposed to our employer-based healthcare, so I'd rather not have other benefits flow from government through business to citizens.
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2016, 07:19:12 AM »

In Europe people have started putting a safety pin on their cloths.  This shows strangers that you respect and will treat them with dignity, and are safe around you. This may catch on here, don't really know!  Just don't buy a red or blue one I guess.  Keep an open mind. Hopefully we'll be impressed by what Trump delivers. I want America to succeed.
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2016, 08:44:12 AM »

Stars upon thars...
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« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2016, 06:02:29 AM »

It's interesting trying to follow the rumors of who might get cabinet and leadership positions, considering consequences of the alt-right "outsiders" like Bannon, Gen. Flynn, and the whole Trump clan versus the myriad of self-branded outsiders who are anything but, the retreads like Giuliani and Gingrich or the current officeholders like Christie, Hensarling, and Sessions. So many of their positions contradict one another ... making them I guess perfect for Trump, whose positions have up to now contradicted his own other positions, too.
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« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2016, 04:51:36 AM »

It's interesting trying to follow the rumors of who might get cabinet and leadership positions, considering consequences of the alt-right "outsiders" like Bannon, Gen. Flynn, and the whole Trump clan versus the myriad of self-branded outsiders who are anything but, the retreads like Giuliani and Gingrich or the current officeholders like Christie, Hensarling, and Sessions. So many of their positions contradict one another ... making them I guess perfect for Trump, whose positions have up to now contradicted his own other positions, too.
Preibus Bannon.
I hope the latter is a toss. But it's hardly a good sign for conciliation. And it indicates that the hate rhetoric and conspiracy theory mongering will continue at the White House.
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2016, 05:26:19 AM »

Obviously I'm pretty down on both of those, but especially Bannon. Hopefully it's just a bone for that crowd and he'll be a batshit voice mostly ignored for more typical GOP voices that, while I also strongly dislike, tend not to be quite so absurd-conspiratorial and overtly hateful. I could imagine Bannon in a sounding-board role, too. He seems to know the pulse of that segment of citizens. So perhaps the heavy lifting on actual policy goes to the Pence crew and they run things by Bannon to see whether and how they can sell it. (Because I think there will be a lot to sell, i.e. many major campaign promises they won't even fully pursue, much less achieve.)

But of course we have to wait and see.
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2016, 10:18:20 AM »

Complete agreement!
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« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2016, 03:46:48 PM »

My local congressman, Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) of the 5th district, has thrown his hat into the ring to seek the DNC Chair position. He has been backed so far by Sen. Sanders and Sen. Schumer. In that he's the first Muslim elected to Congress, I assume there will be plenty of silliness from Fox et al. (There is already a headline about "ties to Nation of Islam.") He has represented us since 2007 in a seat that hasn't gone Republican since the GOP's Walter Judd lost it in '63.

I'm not sure how I feel about the idea, actually. I'd prefer he focus on the business of legislating over party-building. Then again, as someone more committed to the business of party-destroying, I may not be the best guy to weigh in on that...
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« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2016, 03:58:26 PM »

  Clinton speaking fees have dropped to $10.98 per speech. The free market at its finest.  LOL
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