NBA 2017 Topic

[SurfRapGrungeFiend]

Clippers tonight should be a good game

[the captain]

Also, what are your thoughts on Rubio? The Knicks commentators (Breen/Clyde) were talking about how Rubio doesn't seem like himself, he doesn't seem to be playing with the same joy as in the past. Anything to that? Is it injuries/losing? I've always been a fan from afar of his and Dunn doesn't look ready if I'm gonna judge him on one game.

Rubio definitely hasn't been himself. He seems a little slow, for one thing, which is troubling since he wasn't ever a burner. But he also seems tamed, which could have something to do with a very controlling coach barking orders all game, every game. I mean, Rubio is about 25, 26, and has been running pro teams since he was 14... he's playing ok, he's looking to score early more. But his assists are down, his flair is suppressed, I don't know what it is.

You're right about Dunn: he's ready to play in the NBA, but not to start. He's not even definitively better than fellow backup Tyus Jones, just different.

[B.E.]

20 games in...playoff outlook...

Eastern Conference

As of right now, the Hornets, Knicks, and Bucks are in...Hawks, Pacers, Wizards are out... I fully expect a log jam (seeds  4-10) throughout the season. I don't think seeds 7-9 will be decided until the final night or so of the regular season. All these teams have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, except the Wizards IMO. Though, the Hawks are in trouble. They are still turning the ball over at an alarming rate (17 tpg) and their offense is below average (32% from 3, 69% from the FT line). Plenty of time to turn it around, but they need a win badly. They started the season 9-2, are 1-9 since.

Any thoughts on these teams? Do the Pacers or Hawks miss the playoffs? Does Giannis carry the Bucks to a playoff berth?

Western Conference

The current seeding is as follows; 1) GS 2) SA 3) LAC 4) HOU 5) MEM 6) OKC 7) UTA 8 ) POR

Barring significant injury, I expect the top 3 seeds to be GS, SA, LAC (in that order). I think POR will rise to a 4-6 seed at the expense of MEM. Otherwise, unlike the East, I don't expect much movement or suspense in the Western Conference. The Lakers will be the most improved team but I don't think it will be enough to capture the 8th seed. Does anyone think SAC, DEN, NO, MIN, PHX, or DAL will go on a run and make the playoffs?

Captain, I revisited your predictions. Do you think you underestimated MEM or MIL? or do you think they're currently over-achieving? If you swap MEM and MIN in the West and WAS and MIL in the East your predictions are fairly aligned with the current standings.

P.S. The Cavs have lost 3 in a row. I caught the end of the Bulls/Cavs game and it just looked like the Bulls wanted it more.

[the captain]

Re the East, I do think I probably underestimated Milwaukee. I liked their talent in some spots, but especially without Middleton--the one proven shooter who was also an NBA-starter caliber player--just thought it wasn't going to happen. I could imagine them going either way from here out, either staying roughly where they are or dropping. Giannis is continuing to improve, so there is no good reason to put a ceiling on his potential, and Parker is playing really well right now. There are still questions about PG and C, but it isn't that they're bankrupt there, just odd. (I said "questions," not negative conclusions, after all.) They are almost like the late 80s/early 90s Illinois Flyin' Illini team that almost ignored positions when they ran out with Stephen Bardo, Kendall Gill, Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Marcus Liberty, etc. Like them, this team is long, athletic, they can switch anything and everything, they attack the rim, they have passers beyond the backcourt...it's fun.

With Memphis out West, I am not sure I'm ready to concede. Fizdale has done a nice job, and I did NOT expect a team that was going to launch 25 3s a game (and making slightly more than a third of them). However, I have zero faith in their ability to keep it up, especially for health reasons. Chandler Parsons has been injured all the time throughout his pro career, and microfracture, for example, is no joke. And 21 games in, he has played 6 games at 21 mpg. Mike Conley is now out for a while. Tony Allen has missed time. Marc Gasol hasn't historically been a paragon of health. Vince Carter is 100 years old. I expect a drop.

[the captain]

Klay Thompson, 60 points in 29 minutes on only 33 shots or something. And "only" 8 3s, which seems low for a 3-point shooter such as himself on such a big-scoring night. Wow. When, in his last game, Kobe had 60, he made one more shot, but took 17 more shots (22-50 FG).

[B.E.]

Incredible! Occasionally, a player will get 20 in a quarter or 40 through 3, but 60 in 29 minutes! Insane. I heard he only took 11 dribbles and had the ball for less than 90 seconds.

[the captain]

Detroit at Minnesota tonight: hopefully it's a chance to wash out the bad taste of last night's Toronto loss. So Verlander, I'm rooting against you. Vigorously!

But I have a question for you, too. I haven't seen Detroit play this year, I don't think, but I have noticed in the boxes that Stanley Johnson hasn't advanced. Is this just because of a logjam at the PF spot that moves combo guys like Tobias Harris more into the SF spot, squeezing him for minutes? Or is he playing poorly? I thought by the end of last year he was really finding his footing in the NBA as a guy who maybe didn't shoot all that well, but did a lot of little things. And he certainly didn't lack confidence. But with the Morris twin, Jon Leuer, Henry Ellenson, I can see where minutes are harder to come by. And he can't really play SG without being a better shooter and handler.

[Mr. Verlander]

Detroit at Minnesota tonight: hopefully it's a chance to wash out the bad taste of last night's Toronto loss. So Verlander, I'm rooting against you. Vigorously!

But I have a question for you, too. I haven't seen Detroit play this year, I don't think, but I have noticed in the boxes that Stanley Johnson hasn't advanced. Is this just because of a logjam at the PF spot that moves combo guys like Tobias Harris more into the SF spot, squeezing him for minutes? Or is he playing poorly? I thought by the end of last year he was really finding his footing in the NBA as a guy who maybe didn't shoot all that well, but did a lot of little things. And he certainly didn't lack confidence. But with the Morris twin, Jon Leuer, Henry Ellenson, I can see where minutes are harder to come by. And he can't really play SG without being a better shooter and handler.

Johnson seems to be in the doghouse a bit. Van Gundy last week said that his work ethic was 'inconsistent'. This was after he was suspended for a game for violating team rules (which they of course didn't give any detail on). And as you said, there is a squeeze for minutes also, with Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris eating up the small forward minutes. So it's a combination of things. They aren't happy with him right now, and he's probably pouting about it a bit. So he can either get his act together and do what they want, or keep sulking and maybe get dealt in the off-season. I think he'll come around. He's only 20 after all, he's a pretty young kid, and it's only his 2nd year. I think by the end of the year they'll come to an understanding. He's a really talented guy, so I'd like to see him stay, for sure.

And uh, I think that you probably have a worse taste in your mouth this morning after that beatdown last night! Drummond had a pretty good game, I'd say! I can feel Thibs cooking up a deal to get some vets on his team!

[the captain]

Yes, last night was horrible. The only two bright spots for me were a) seeing Rubio hit double figures and shoot well (4-5 FG) and b) seeing Minnesota's own Jon Leuer have a really nice game. However, that was bittersweet, reminiscent of his success against the Gophers when he played for Wisconsin. I envision something changing, but I don't know what it is. Local columnists are beginning to call for Kris Dunn to start, but I don't see that as helping anything much. Probably the opposite. So some lineup shakeup? A trade? I don't know.

[Mr. Verlander]

Leuer is a solid player! He was one of those signings that wasn't 'sexy', but he's averaging something like 10 points and 7 boards off the bench. I'll take that any day. And it looks like they're really starting to get him some looks on offense; Van Gundy said that they ran a couple of plays for him last night, which they haven't done very often. So, good stuff.

A Minnesota trade rumor that I read was some sort of a 3 team trade, with Minnesota ending up with Nerlens Noel, who seems to be the hot trade target right now.

[the captain]

Leuer is very good. He was a late bloomer in high school, and the Gophers apparently never offered him until quite late--I think his senior year. (To be fair, he was only about 6-1 until I think his sophomore or junior year, when he shot up to eventually landing at 6-10, 6-11ish.) He is the kind of guy Wisconsin always seems to identify and develop. Having been a guard, he had nice face-up skills, which then served him well in college and as the pros shift toward that whole face-up 4 thing.

Noel ... eh. I wouldn't love that. He's athletic and active, but I'm not sure his production matches the optics. Plus he's been hurt his entire career: who's to say he'd stay healthy? Anyway, the kind of player he is--garbage man and defender, not much else--seems to be a worse version of what we already have in Gorgui Dieng, though he's more athletic than Gorgui.

It's tough to put my finger on what we're lacking, because you go up and down the roster and see athleticism, shooting, length, rebounding, character. It's obviously something else, something more intangible like chemistry. The word is veteran leadership, yet once you're out of our top few guys, you have 4th year players in Baz and Dieng, 3rd year guys in Wig and LaVine, 2nd in KAT, Belly, and Tyus Jones. Rubio is in his 5th or 6th year. Brandon Rush, Cole Aldrich, and John Lucas III are vets. We're not really THAT young. Something just isn't fitting.

[B.E.]

Obviously, it's still very early on, but are you happy with Thibs? Any concern he isn't the right fit?

[the captain]

I'm not sure about Thibs being the problem--after all, he has a proven track record and the guys on this team for the most part don't--but I am concerned about the overall results, absolutely. We're 6-17 right now; last year we had 9 wins by Dec. 10, and that was considered a disappointing start. This year I fully expected to be somewhere around .500 throughout the season, maybe a few games under, ideally a few games over, but right in that ballpark. Instead we're ahead of only woeful Dallas (that aging and scotch-taped roster even further beaten up by injuries), trailing even such expected trainwrecks as Phoenix and New Orleans. It's embarrassing.

As I wrote above, the issue really does seem to be fit. Maybe we should start Belly at PF and bring Gorgui off the bench? Maybe LaVine should be 6th man, with ... somebody else starting. (We're not strong on the wings, really...presumably Baz could start, or maybe even Rush.) I've read rumors of Luol Deng being a possible trade target, but his production is so low right now, I wouldn't give up much for him, especially with his new contract--locker room presence or not. I'm not sure what I'd want to do. But something has to happen.

[Mr. Verlander]

Maybe they'll bring a guy in like Noah, who isn't afraid to kick someone's ass-either on the other team, or his own. A guy who can be a vocal leader.

Oddly enough, with this Stanley Johnson talk, he is being sent down to the D-league team in Grand Rapids. He, Ellenson, and Gbinjie (or however you spell it) are going down. Johnson (and maybe the other 2) will be back in Detroit for the game with the Sixers tomorrow night.

I don't know what the point of it is. To get him some playing time somehow, in order to boost his confidence? As a punishment for breaking some rule (that he already was punished for last week by getting a DNP-CD)? It seems odd that he would get sent down for just one game.

[the captain]

I don't know, it's not so strange for second-year guys to get sent down, whether for practice or games, especially if (like Johnson) they aren't playing.

We don't use our D-League affiliate much, but that's mostly because we're one of only a handful of teams that hasn't bought or arranged for single-team affiliation yet. (When Saunders returned, that was on the priority list, but fell after the new downtown practice facility and medical center, the Target Center overhaul, etc.) I expect that we'll have a team within a short driving distance within a couple years, probably in Rochester because of the franchise's affiliation with the Mayo health system. (Mayo was begun and is still based on Rochester, which is about 90 minutes southeast of the Twin Cities.)

[the captain]

Wolves look pretty bad in Chicago on an ESPN game, down about 20 late in the 2nd. But there are these moments where you wonder how we can ever lose with the talent some of these guys show.

[the captain]

Heh, and just like that, it's a game again at the half... As I said, these guys are so talented--you see it in glimpses--you wonder how they ever lose.

[SurfRiderHawaii]

2016 now, without a doubt, the worst fuckin year ever! RIP Craig!

[SMiLE Brian]

RIP Craig, and keeping the 1970s alive with your style! 

[the captain]

2016 now, without a doubt, the worst fuckin year ever! RIP Craig!

I sense hyperbole. 1945, maybe?

[SurfRiderHawaii]

2016 now, without a doubt, the worst fuckin year ever! RIP Craig!

I sense hyperbole. 1945, maybe?

Do me a favor and skip my posts!  IMO,You've turned into a sanctimonious know it all who has to argue with everyone. I guess the void from AGDs departure has to be filled by another a hole.

[the captain]

I've always been sanctimonious. It's a flaw I acknowledge. But I do enjoy argument, which sharpens the minds of everyone involved (if they're doing a good job of it). Going forward I'll try to remember to ignore you, though. I admit I tend to forget who's who around the internet, however, and so everyone more or less blends together for me. If I respond to you in the future, accept my apology in advance: I probably forgot about this exchange, or who asked me to ignore him/her.

You do me a favor and consider thickening your skin. I didn't insult you in the slightest.

[SurfRiderHawaii]

I've always been sanctimonious. It's a flaw I acknowledge. But I do enjoy argument, which sharpens the minds of everyone involved (if they're doing a good job of it). Going forward I'll try to remember to ignore you, though. I admit I tend to forget who's who around the internet, however, and so everyone more or less blends together for me. If I respond to you in the future, accept my apology in advance: I probably forgot about this exchange, or who asked me to ignore him/her.

You do me a favor and consider thickening your skin. I didn't insult you in the slightest.

Where you read I said you insulted me I have no idea. Your post was insulting to the memory of Craig!

You can't shoe a little respect for the passing of the great Craig Sager without trolling for a debate.

I will direct the remainder of my thoughts via PM.

[the captain]

You know, I was thinking as the game began--not for a good reason, since his Bulls are down six or eight at the moment--that Jimmy Butler has been a lot of fun to watch. He left high school irrelevant. He left junior college as the 127th ranked player from that year's JuCo ranks according to 247 Sports's composite ranking of major services. (For comparison, I scanned that year's Top 50 JuCos and recognized about half a dozen names, two of them because they became Gophers.) Last pick of the first round out of Marquette, which actually already shows ridiculous work put in, unbelievable improvement and achievement. This means guaranteed money that can change a person's life.

But while his former college teammate Lazar Hayward (the final pick of the previous draft's first round) already has basically bounced himself out of the league altogether, and Fes Ezili (that last first-rounder the year after) has earned a big second contract on size and theoretical ability more than production, with roughly 4 ppg and 4 rpg thus far in his career), Butler's ppg has gone like this: 2.6, 8.6, 13.1, 20.0, 20.9, 25.7. Not only improvement, but almost always amazing improvement. His 3-point shooting has gone from almost literally nonexistent to 35% or more. He notches more assists per game (4.8 last year) than some of the scoring point guards, and while he has rebounded well for a guard, he is to almost 7 rpg as a first-year small forward, out of position because of Dwyane Wade.

All offense? Hardly. He is a tough, scrappy, smart, athletic defender. And at 6-7, he sometimes guards everyone 1-4.

I think that shooting guard has been the league's weakest position in recent years is generally accepted. Yet I think it's absurd that when talking about those best among the guys we have, it's mostly James Harden (before he became PG this year) and Klay Thompson. If the writer feels nostalgic, he'd mention Kobe or Dwyane. If he felt forward-thinking, maybe Devin Booker. But what about Jimmy Butler? If I were a coach, he'd be among my 15 most coveted players in the game today. Maybe 10.

[the captain]

I just also have to say, I love Mirza Teletovic (in a wholly different way). There's something deeply satisfying about watching a shot-hunting, soft-bodied Eastern European player who looks like he can't decide whether, after draining a fadeaway 3 on an inattentive defender, he'd rather smoke a cigarette or punch you in the face.