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Author Topic: Vladimir Putin: Turkey downing Russian jet a "stab in the back"  (Read 3225 times)
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Douchepool
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« on: November 24, 2015, 09:20:47 AM »

http://bbc.in/1XoyFCC

This merely proves a longstanding hunch I've had - Turkey is not a friend to Western civilization and is actively supporting Daesh/ISIS. Turkish forces hate the Kurds, who are also fighting ISIS. This is nasty business. And if Turkey is attacked by Russia, we could very well see World War III.
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2015, 09:30:11 AM »

Messing with Russia is A.Very.Bad.Idea.
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2015, 09:45:42 AM »

WWIII was exactly what occurred to me first thing this morning, not just because of the fighter but even the obvious disagreement to what should happen to a post-ISIS Middle East. The actors in the "coalition" see different roles--different universes--for Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Shiites, not to mention smaller minorities, to say nothing of other, secular interests.

It's sad when an escalated proxy war seems like the best-case outcome among likely possibilities.
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2015, 10:01:22 AM »

From what I have read, the Russian plane crossed Turkish airspace 10 times, and after given an ample amount of warnings, 2 F-16 fighters fired upon the Russian plane after it had crossed the border of Turkey.

I'm not certain that WWIII is in anyone's best interest in this scenario - except perhaps the diehard Muslim radicals. Does Russia have anything to gain from an all out war with NATO?
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2015, 10:08:01 AM »

No, but they may well engage in another game of chicken. And sometimes there are unintended consequences. Nobody thought WWI would be the result of Ferdinand's assassination, either.
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2015, 10:17:29 AM »

No, but they may well engage in another game of chicken. And sometimes there are unintended consequences. Nobody thought WWI would be the result of Ferdinand's assassination, either.

Good point. So many different objectives being fought for in such a small region, interferences with NATO, Putin being pushed to the edge by extremism...it's like a match being lit next to a powder keg.
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2015, 11:02:46 AM »

From what I have read, the Russian plane crossed Turkish airspace 10 times, and after given an ample amount of warnings, 2 F-16 fighters fired upon the Russian plane after it had crossed the border of Turkey.

I'm not certain that WWIII is in anyone's best interest in this scenario - except perhaps the diehard Muslim radicals. Does Russia have anything to gain from an all out war with NATO?

The airspace violation seems to be one issue.  Someone else should have been able been able to geolocate the plane in airspace to ascertain if they did indeed cross the airspace.

Turkey was rebuffed to be admitted to the EU.  Maybe a continuing problem.  And, there have been some reports they have been buying oil from ISIS.  It seems that there are a bunch of nations buying oil from ISIS. A little transparency is in order.

No one wants WWIII.
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2015, 11:18:04 AM »

Russia shot down a Korean Airlines commercial flight when it accidentally wandered into Siberian airspace and nobody went to war.  I'm hoping, as was said here, it's in no one's interests for NATO and Russia to become even more polarized.  Obviously, this isn't a good scenario for anyone, other than ISIL, nor is inflammatory talk by Presidential candidates throwing red meat to the emotional masses.
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2015, 11:25:04 AM »

Russia shot down a Korean Airlines commercial flight when it accidentally wandered into Siberian airspace and nobody went to war.  I'm hoping, as was said here, it's in no one's interests for NATO and Russia to become even more polarized.  Obviously, this isn't a good scenario for anyone, other than ISIL, nor is inflammatory talk by Presidential candidates throwing red meat to the emotional masses.
Good point. I never thought I'd be happy to see Putin intervene but with all this insecurity it is amazing to see that unanticipated support.  At least he is decisive about responding to that airliner being shot down. It is a very scary time. 

 
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2015, 01:53:23 PM »

 LOL Because of the forthcoming holiday, I initially read the title of the thread thinking of the bird turkey and had a moment of insanity.
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the captain
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2015, 03:04:23 PM »

No, but they may well engage in another game of chicken. And sometimes there are unintended consequences. Nobody thought WWI would be the result of Ferdinand's assassination, either.

Good point. So many different objectives being fought for in such a small region, interferences with NATO, Putin being pushed to the edge by extremism...it's like a match being lit next to a powder keg.

I responded to this on my phone at work but it didn't go through and, well, nobody cares, but long story short, I'm attempting to recreate the gist of it here and now.

The idea of "Putin being pushed ... by extremism" is one I don't put a ton of stock in. Not to say Russia isn't having its own issues with extremism, both recently and going back quite some time. But he's been quite the instigator in many circumstances recently, which is why I mentioned a game of chicken earlier. I don't think he wants a war against anyone of substance. But I think he has been calling the west's bluff repeatedly: Crimea and Ukraine; flying into other nations' airspace repeatedly; doing military exercises more or less right on other countries' borders. I'm not saying he's the devil incarnate or that any other nation is an angel: I don't believe any of that. But I do think this kind of (presumably shirtless, knowing Vlad) chest-beating is a serious risk to international stability. All it takes is one miscommunication. Say, a fighter being shot down on the Turkish border...

(And to be clear, I also agree more or less with TRBB that Turkey's administration is extremely troubling and ought not be considered a strong ally, with its recent march away from its secular past.)
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2015, 03:15:27 PM »

No, but they may well engage in another game of chicken. And sometimes there are unintended consequences. Nobody thought WWI would be the result of Ferdinand's assassination, either.

Good point. So many different objectives being fought for in such a small region, interferences with NATO, Putin being pushed to the edge by extremism...it's like a match being lit next to a powder keg.

I responded to this on my phone at work but it didn't go through and, well, nobody cares, but long story short, I'm attempting to recreate the gist of it here and now.

The idea of "Putin being pushed ... by extremism" is one I don't put a ton of stock in. Not to say Russia isn't having its own issues with extremism, both recently and going back quite some time. But he's been quite the instigator in many circumstances recently, which is why I mentioned a game of chicken earlier. I don't think he wants a war against anyone of substance. But I think he has been calling the west's bluff repeatedly: Crimea and Ukraine; flying into other nations' airspace repeatedly; doing military exercises more or less right on other countries' borders. I'm not saying he's the devil incarnate or that any other nation is an angel: I don't believe any of that. But I do think this kind of (presumably shirtless, knowing Vlad) chest-beating is a serious risk to international stability. All it takes is one miscommunication. Say, a fighter being shot down on the Turkish border...

(And to be clear, I also agree more or less with TRBB that Turkey's administration is extremely troubling and ought not be considered a strong ally, with its recent march away from its secular past.)
I agree whole-heartedly with this post.  Putin is a very problematic guy with tendencies toward extremism, pugnaciousness and despotism.
Sometimes people think too much in sides, and that if someone is on one "side" that person smells of roses and is to be supported in all cases and if they are on the other "side" everything they do or say must have a foundation in evil. Sometimes the enemy of your enemy is your friend, but be careful not to support that situational friend to the degree that, when the situation changes, you've empowered that friend beyond reason.
A little like the Mujahideen.
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2015, 05:07:15 PM »

No, but they may well engage in another game of chicken. And sometimes there are unintended consequences. Nobody thought WWI would be the result of Ferdinand's assassination, either.

Good point. So many different objectives being fought for in such a small region, interferences with NATO, Putin being pushed to the edge by extremism...it's like a match being lit next to a powder keg.

I responded to this on my phone at work but it didn't go through and, well, nobody cares, but long story short, I'm attempting to recreate the gist of it here and now.

The idea of "Putin being pushed ... by extremism" is one I don't put a ton of stock in. Not to say Russia isn't having its own issues with extremism, both recently and going back quite some time. But he's been quite the instigator in many circumstances recently, which is why I mentioned a game of chicken earlier. I don't think he wants a war against anyone of substance. But I think he has been calling the west's bluff repeatedly: Crimea and Ukraine; flying into other nations' airspace repeatedly; doing military exercises more or less right on other countries' borders. I'm not saying he's the devil incarnate or that any other nation is an angel: I don't believe any of that. But I do think this kind of (presumably shirtless, knowing Vlad) chest-beating is a serious risk to international stability. All it takes is one miscommunication. Say, a fighter being shot down on the Turkish border...

(And to be clear, I also agree more or less with TRBB that Turkey's administration is extremely troubling and ought not be considered a strong ally, with its recent march away from its secular past.)
I agree whole-heartedly with this post.  Putin is a very problematic guy with tendencies toward extremism, pugnaciousness and despotism.
Sometimes people think too much in sides, and that if someone is on one "side" that person smells of roses and is to be supported in all cases and if they are on the other "side" everything they do or say must have a foundation in evil. Sometimes the enemy of your enemy is your friend, but be careful not to support that situational friend to the degree that, when the situation changes, you've empowered that friend beyond reason.
A little like the Mujahideen.

Yes, we know from whence Putin came, and that doesn't make me think of him as balanced in any way.  Sadly, I do think politics and grand-standing for the various nations' highly emotional people is part of the mess that creates no coordination in the efforts in Syria.  With everything that is wrong in how our gov't works (or doesn't), thank heavens our US President isn't inclined to go for the dramatic soundbite over reasonable assessment of a situation.
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2015, 07:08:40 PM »

Yes, we know from whence Putin came, and that doesn't make me think of him as balanced in any way.  Sadly, I do think politics and grand-standing for the various nations' highly emotional people is part of the mess that creates no coordination in the efforts in Syria.  With everything that is wrong in how our gov't works (or doesn't), thank heavens our US President isn't inclined to go for the dramatic soundbite over reasonable assessment of a situation.
We are apparently unusual in that we appreciate calm deliberation in a president.
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2015, 07:36:46 PM »

A U.S./Russian alliance (or at least open channel of communication) would make the rest of the world shudder. Sadly, current U.S. leadership would rather isolate the only entity trying to actively destroy ISIS.
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2015, 07:47:00 PM »

What I've read throughout the gamut of mainstream media says Russia's activities have been focused on anti-Assad, but mostly non-ISIS targets. Especially after ISIS brought down the Russian tourist plane I'm not suggesting Russia is pro-ISIS--far from it--but I'm not sure you're correct either in what their activity has been, or that they're the only entity in that purported activity.

An alliance would be helpful, though. Hollande obviously thinks so, too, considering his schedule this week.
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2015, 07:49:06 PM »

http://bbc.in/1XoyFCC

This merely proves a longstanding hunch I've had - Turkey is not a friend to Western civilization and is actively supporting Daesh/ISIS. Turkish forces hate the Kurds, who are also fighting ISIS. This is nasty business. And if Turkey is attacked by Russia, we could vecry well see World War III.
The Russians are not just fighting ISIS. They are attacking all groups opposing Bashar al-Assad. In this case, Russian planes were attacking Turkmen, Turks who live in Syria. No world war. Putin, once again, has bitten off more than he can chew.
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« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2015, 07:51:31 PM »

Well, Russia and the U.S. are not on the best of terms because Assad (the devil we know and therefore should not be removed from power) is fighting off U.S.-backed terrorists who call themselves "the Free Syrian Army" and Russia is actively helping Assad. Of course, the question becomes "why is the U.S. financing terrorists?" and we're back to square one.

If Assad is removed from power Syria will become the next Iraq, Egypt, or Libya.
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« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2015, 08:17:42 PM »

I think I agree with what you just said, but that doesn't mean Russia is "the only entity trying to actively destroy ISIS." I agree on the Assad issue, the US-backed terrorist issue, and Russia's role re protecting Assad. But none of that disputes that to date Russia's main targets have not been ISIS, but rather the "US-backed terrorists."

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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2015, 08:24:16 PM »

Maybe not a main target, but certainly Russia has been doing more to combat ISIS/Daesh than any other nation. Putin's no fool. Assad, just like Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak, and Muammar Gaddafi, is a SECULAR leader first and foremost. The U.S.-backed terrorists in the "Free Syrian Army," much like ISIS/Daesh, are hardcore fundamentalist Muslims, or Islamists as they're called. If Assad falls, Syria hurtles back to the eighth century. This cannot happen.

If Putin is smart, he'd ally himself with the Kurdish people.
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2015, 11:24:03 PM »

The shooting down of the Russian plane shows how disparate the anti-ISIS campaign is. Here are the world's military forces fighting an enemy that recognises no borders, clashing because one of the said countries has strayed into another's airspace.

Yes, the Turkmen issue makes it far from that simple; and the Assad issue makes it even further from being that simple. But the ground rules need to be rewritten from the bottom up. Against a common enemy like ISIS, the old rules of battle don't apply and the attitude to borders between supposed allies needs to be utterly rethought.

I dread to think what will happen in Syria once (if) ISIS has been beaten. Will the US-backed rebels go back to trying to overthrow the Russia-backed Assad? What if ground troops (which will eventually be sent in against ISIS) from the US/NATO and/or Russia aren't withdrawn post-ISIS but retained there for, shall we say, peace-keeping duties, end up facing off?

The situation's far too complicated for a numpty like me to predict an outcome but I can't help but wonder what my kids will be facing when they grow up…
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