National Basketball Association ('14-'15)

[SurferDownUnder]

I wonder if when Dickel thinks of the roughly $135 million Marion made in his NBA career (just on salary alone, to say nothing of endorsements), he ever cries...

Well if you take Marks words, he chose Europe over being drafted late in the 1st of the 2000 draft. Having worked out for both the Lakers and the Nets as the story goes.....

[the captain]

I wonder if when Dickel thinks of the roughly $135 million Marion made in his NBA career (just on salary alone, to say nothing of endorsements), he ever cries...

Well if you take Marks words, he chose Europe over being drafted late in the 1st of the 2000 draft. Having worked out for both the Lakers and the Nets as the story goes.....

LOL, that's a joke. He was invited to Portsmouth pre-draft, which by 2000 (with the barrage of high schoolers and guaranteed deals from the newest CBA) meant he wasn't considered a likely choice: people used (and use) Portsmouth as an opportunity to maybe work their way into the 2nd round or get a summer league invitation.

What's more, even at the time, he certainly didn't sound like someone who "chose" not to be drafted. (Even if he'd signed with a Euro team before the draft, if he were draftable, a team would have taken him to retain his rights. That happens all the time.) After Portsmouth--where he claimed a foot injury slowed him down--he said ""Even if it doesn't get me (drafted), I hope I can go to Chicago [another pre-draft camp] and do better," he said." (Steve Addy, Las Vegas Sun, April 11, 2000) He did NOT say "well, the NBA wants to make me a first-rounder and give me a guaranteed contract, but I'd rather go to Europe."

[SurferDownUnder]

I wonder if when Dickel thinks of the roughly $135 million Marion made in his NBA career (just on salary alone, to say nothing of endorsements), he ever cries...

Well if you take Marks words, he chose Europe over being drafted late in the 1st of the 2000 draft. Having worked out for both the Lakers and the Nets as the story goes.....

LOL, that's a joke. He was invited to Portsmouth pre-draft, which by 2000 (with the barrage of high schoolers and guaranteed deals from the newest CBA) meant he wasn't considered a likely choice: people used (and use) Portsmouth as an opportunity to maybe work their way into the 2nd round or get a summer league invitation.

What's more, even at the time, he certainly didn't sound like someone who "chose" not to be drafted. (Even if he'd signed with a Euro team before the draft, if he were draftable, a team would have taken him to retain his rights. That happens all the time.) After Portsmouth--where he claimed a foot injury slowed him down--he said ""Even if it doesn't get me (drafted), I hope I can go to Chicago [another pre-draft camp] and do better," he said." (Steve Addy, Las Vegas Sun, April 11, 2000) He did NOT say "well, the NBA wants to make me a first-rounder and give me a guaranteed contract, but I'd rather go to Europe."

That all sounds about right haha, he relies on the naivety of those he coaches to see him as the guy from Dunedin who made it in basketball but it doesn't take too long to see through that. Nobody ever dared bring up the anti-drug violation suspension he got on the Tall Blacks either..... 

[the captain]

To be fair, he really did come a long way and had a career. It's not nothing and I ought not belittle it. But I do believe he's telling tall tales with that draft story.

[the captain]

The guy whose lack of an NBA career surprised me was Kirk Penney, who played collegiately next door at Wisconsin. He was a very good player. In today's NBA putting more emphasis on shooting, I think he'd be in the league for sure.

[SurferDownUnder]

The guy whose lack of an NBA career surprised me was Kirk Penney, who played collegiately next door at Wisconsin. He was a very good player. In today's NBA putting more emphasis on shooting, I think he'd be in the league for sure.

He was sorta a Jason Kapono when the league already had Jason Kapono. He had a stint with the 04' Heat didn't?

[the captain]

He did play for the Heat and the Clippers in the mid-00s, but just barely. And yeah, he was kind of Kapono-ish in that he was a midsized white shooter. But at that time, especially with wings, teams were trying to find athletes they could teach skills to, rather than skill guys to try to compete athletically.

For comparison, the 2003 NBA draft (which is the year Penney finished his college eligibility), these were wings who got selected in the first round: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Jarvis Hayes, Mickael Pietrus, Reece Gaines, Aleksandr Pavlovic, Dahntay Jones, Zoran Planinic, Carlos Delfino, and Josh Howard.

Of those guys, only Anthony, Pavlovic, and Planinic are roughly as athletic as Penney (and Anthony was bigger and super-skilled, while Planinic could play all three backcourt spots, giving them one-ups). The others were all far more athletic than him, yet in many cases, were not better players. Hayes washed out. Pietrus has bounced around, but never became a skill guy. Gaines was nothing. But everyone wanted length, athleticism, versatility (athletically) more than skill.

Kapono was actually picked that same year, in the second round. Also taken in that round were guys like Travis Hansen (BYU), Rick Rickert, (Minnesota), James Jones (Miami), Kyle Korver (Creighton). Those guys would be first-rounders now based almost solely on shooting. (Not saying they all warrant it, just that they'd be taken that way now.)

[SurferDownUnder]

He did play for the Heat and the Clippers in the mid-00s, but just barely. And yeah, he was kind of Kapono-ish in that he was a midsized white shooter. But at that time, especially with wings, teams were trying to find athletes they could teach skills to, rather than skill guys to try to compete athletically.

For comparison, the 2003 NBA draft (which is the year Penney finished his college eligibility), these were wings who got selected in the first round: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Jarvis Hayes, Mickael Pietrus, Reece Gaines, Aleksandr Pavlovic, Dahntay Jones, Zoran Planinic, Carlos Delfino, and Josh Howard.

Of those guys, only Anthony, Pavlovic, and Planinic are roughly as athletic as Penney (and Anthony was bigger and super-skilled, while Planinic could play all three backcourt spots, giving them one-ups). The others were all far more athletic than him, yet in many cases, were not better players. Hayes washed out. Pietrus has bounced around, but never became a skill guy. Gaines was nothing. But everyone wanted length, athleticism, versatility (athletically) more than skill.

Kapono was actually picked that same year, in the second round. Also taken in that round were guys like Travis Hansen (BYU), Rick Rickert, (Minnesota), James Jones (Miami), Kyle Korver (Creighton). Those guys would be first-rounders now based almost solely on shooting. (Not saying they all warrant it, just that they'd be taken that way now.)

Pietrus was interesting, he bounced onto many teams but was quite serviceable particularly on that Magic team. Josh Howard was an all-star right? He had a couple of knee injuries tho. Maybe Kirk could have taken Darko Milicic's spot 

[the captain]

Yes Pietrus had moments. Howard was a really good player, pre-injuries, but even he was hurt by the prevailing winds of the day: ACC POY, a senior, taken (I believe) very late 1st for what? To make room for projects, most of whom were inferior to him. I'm not anti-early entrants--an adult has a right to try to make a living--but teams were becoming morons around then, infatuated with HSers and international guys because (like the perfect political candidates) they had no record to run on!

[Mr. Verlander]

It looks as if the Pistons are going to make the playoffs! Even if it ends up being a series against the Cavs, it's reason to celebrate around these parts. And I think they can steal a game against Cleveland, because Cleveland just isn't that good (there, I said it. They're East good, not overall a dominant team. And unless Irving and/or Love are traded, LeBron won't win there. Chemistry sucks, and 'Bron ain't ever happy with those guys. Ever).

The other team that I'm heavily invested in is Golden State. Not because I'm a bandwagon guy (usually, I actually hate teams that are really good. Unless they're one of mine), but because, as Captain knows, I'm a huge MSU guy (#3 recruiting class in the nation next year, or higher if Josh Jackson comes here. And please, let's not talk about the tournament this year. Seriously, I still have 1 crying fit a day), and Draymond Green is having a hell of a year. All he's ever done is get better, since his freshman year at MSU. I understand that a lot of people can't stand him, because he never shuts up. He's this generation's version of Bill Laimbeer. Hate him if he's on the other team, love him if he's one of yours. Still, I don't know if they're gonna win it all. I think the Spurs can beat them. Doesn't mean that they will, just that I can see a scenario where Curry gets into a funk and can't hit anything, and if that happens, they're done.

And as the season winds down, I'm surprised at how bad Chicago is, and how good Boston is. Chicago made a bad move with their coaching hire, and Boston is getting it done under the radar.

[the captain]

It doesn't surprise me that the Pistons are good. I figured they'd be in the chase for a low seed because the talent was solid (and they've made good moves during the season), SVG is a really good coach, and maybe most importantly, he's really gotten a lot out of Reggie Jackson. I'm surprised by the lattermost. I really didn't see him becoming as good a player as he is becoming. Scorer, yeah, that wasn't a question. But he's playing good basketball.

Boston: too well coached, and too many good players, not to be a really good team in the East. Probably the best coached team in the East, actually. Their backcourt is still pretty bad offensively (overly dependent on Isaiah Thomas's 1-on-1 abilities) but it's amazing defensively. And they just have such depth of quality players, it almost makes up for the lack of real stars. It is almost reminiscient of the old Hubie Brown Memphis teams in that respect.

Chicago: this one is a surprise, but if you look at it in hindsight, it makes some sense. Hoiberg is a good coach and I think he'll be a fine NBA coach overall. But a first-timer is a first-timer. And what's more, while we all said going in that this was a team ready to win, the reality is that the core hasn't really been playing together: Rose has been out more or less for 2-3 years, and so his return meant a bit of a power struggle between him and Butler. (I don't mean that in a good guy/bad guy way, but just figuring out who will be the ball-dominant player.) Further, the locker room wasn't anti-Thibs, it was divided. So I think you had guys like Noah, Gibson, and probably Butler feeling a little bit abandoned by the organization even as others (Gasol, Mirotic) were probably happier about it. Ongoing health challenges to a lot of the team haven't helped, either. They'll figure it out through some combination of roster moves and coaching adjustments, but this is something of a lost season.

[Sheriff John Stone]

Happy Trails to 76ers GM Sam Hinkie...we hardly knew ya. As I posted a few times previously, I was a supporter of The Hinkie Plan. I felt that Doug Collins severely damaged the franchise, making it at least a three year rebuilding process. On top of that, it was Sam Hinkie's goal - and the franchise's - to build, not just a yearly contender, but a championship team. While the first three years were kind of disappointing, I thought that next year would finally be the Big Turnaround.

For me, as far as Sam Hinkey's legacy, my biggest disappointment was not the accumulated draft picks - that was Sam's biggest achievement - but the actual players/talent that Sam did acquire with some high draft picks during his three year tenure. Admittedly, Sam did have some bad luck with the ping pong balls. All that being said, Sam could've "salvaged" things and made everything OK next year if all the pieces fell together. I still think things will come together to some extent next year which will make Sam's legacy even more interesting. If the 76ers do become a championship franchise, how much credit will Sam Hinkie get? I guess that's a big "if"...

[the captain]

I was surprised at the news. I understand it: they're finalizing a deal with the newish Big Kahuna's son (Jerry and Bryan Colangelo, respectively) which reportedly would have made BC Hinkie's coequal. Uh sure...

But why not make the move back when they initiated all this, around all-star break? Or after the season? Have the balls to fire him! I think they used Hinkie, let him be the whipping boy for the media and fans (for carrying out ownership's direction) and then forced him into an impossible situation, basically forcing the resignation. So now all credit for the rebuild as they enter the spending stage will go to Clan Colangelo. Stinky.

Hinkie was just on Zach Lowe's podcast Tuesday being a good soldier, even though he had to know what was up by then.

[Mr. Verlander]

I think the guy was batshit crazy. I mean, he wrote a 13 page resignation letter. Have you read any of that thing? It's unreal.

And his decision making was questionable. Joel Embiid, who was a walking stress fracture? Before the draft, pretty much everyone knew that it was a big gamble. You could've had Exum, or Aaron Gordon, or Marcus Smart. Then he took Okafor, which would make sense if he didn't already have, what, 2 centers on the team already? And he traded for Sakic, who dominates in Turkey, yet hasn't played an NBA game yet. So right there, Embiid and Sakic haven't played a minute yet in the NBA.

I mean, I can kinda see what he was trying to do. It seemed at times that he didn't let guys stick around long enough to have any kind of chemistry, because he was always trying to pile up picks and trade a sub-par player away for another sub-par player. It disappoints me in a way, because I liked those Philly teams of the early  90's with Barkley and Mahorn (I love Mahorn, because he was a Piston). After Detroit was done, I kinda thought that Philly was the team that could give Chicago problems, because they seemed so physical. It didn't really work out that way!

[the captain]

I heard the letter was pretty bizarre. But hey, oh well.

The thing to remember, though, is that this wasn't Hinkie holding the 76ers hostage: he had a plan that was nothing but a more confident version of what has been common practice (and since OKC's rise, practically universally acknowledged as the way to improve) for years. His ownership wanted the approach. He was doing his job.

I acknowledge some negatives. On the plus side: he shed bad contracts; he hired an absolute superstar of a coach; they made personnel decisions that kept a hard-working team on the court even as the losses ensured high picks.

Another thing is, drafts are what they are. A high pick isn't a player, and you can only do what you can do. (If there's no Lebron, you can't draft Lebron.) And I think the idea was going for the best talent regardless of position because you can always trade players as you go along, so you have the overlap of Noel, Saric, Okafor, and Embiid. Consider the "draft by position" approach: the Wolves in 1990 were desperate for a center, and so they took what they thought was the best one at 6, Felton Spencer of Louisville. He was a journeyman with his good moments, but they could have drafted someone admittedly duplicative of (SIX FOOT SEVEN) PF Sam Mitchell in Loy Vaught, Elden Campbell, or Tyrone Hill, all of whom were far better picks and still would have filled a defense/rebounding hole; they could have gone with versatile and underrated wing Lionel Simmons of LaSalle; they could have swung for the fences with Toni Kukoc or Cedric Ceballos (both 2nd rounders!). But they felt they didn't need certain positions, and DID need a center. That's what happens when you draft for a position. There are hundreds of examples, examples every year. If you take the best point guard instead of the best player, or the best wing instead of the best player, you dig yourself a hole. Take the best player, and trade somebody if need be. We just don't know yet who are the keepers for Philly because we haven't seen (arguably the most promising) two, Saric and Embiid.

All this said, I'm not necessarily a Hinkie fan. I just think it was a bullshit force-out so close to the end of the season that stinks of nepotism.

[Mr. Verlander]

Pistons are back in the playoffs! A first round series against the Cavs or the Raptors, which likely means destruction. Hell, I'll take it though. It's good experience for a young team, and when a team finally gets into the playoffs, they start to realize what it takes to really make some noise. And I think they'll be able to steal a game against either team.

[SMiLE Brian]

My bulls.

[the captain]

Tough year for Chicago but they'll be fine. Next year they still have an all-star wing in Butler; some good young veteran pieces in Mirotic, McDermott, and Gibson; vets Rose and Dunleavy, who can both contribute massively at any given time, though not every night; and young talent in Portis. Tough to say what will, or should, happen with Gasol and Noah: it seemed a sure thing both were gone, then maybe just Noah, now maybe just Gasol. We'll see.

They also have their own picks this year, meaning two picks in the top 45 or so: both could net good prospects.

I think the reality is, while everyone expected a veteran team to transition seamlessly to a wholly new philosophy, that's just not easy. The team was built for Thibs, and probably half of the roster preferred his style to Hoiberg's.

Most of all, Rose comes back more or less healthy and expects to be the guy through whom it all flows, and that isn't how things work anymore. He's the biggest question going forward, even more than the free-agent bigs. With one last year on his deal ($21 mil), do you try to move him in the offseason just to move on? He proved this year he's still a legitimate NBA starter--just not MVP or all-star anymore. He could, potentially, work his way back into all-star contention, probably, though his superstar days seem to be over with. So would some other team take a flyer on him? I can easily imagine, say, Dallas bringing him on board. They've been doing that short-term restocking to help Dirk go out on winning teams before they start their inevitable, eventual, massive rebuild. Brooklyn could be another team willing to pay for a short-term solution. And even that salary isn't so crazy when you consider next year's cap is likely to be $90 million or so.

[SMiLE Brian]

Good points captain, it's been a year of transition for sure with Hoilberg. Plus it seems all the mileage from the previous coach has caught up with vets like Noah. Hopefully they pick up some fresh legs in new players in the offseason to fit hoilberg's system. Plus somehow get Kirk Hinrich back!

[the captain]

In my opinion, the toughest thing will be Gasol. Noah seemed really limited after years of injuries, and there was no question he was a Thibs guy. I think it's best to part ways rather than spend big for a guy you probably can't depend on to stay healthy.

Gasol is different, though, still playing at a really high level and a guy who is almost custom-built for Hoiberg's free-flowing, creative brand of offense. But re-signing Gasol is no sure thing. It seems as if he has three main priorities: 1) play a key role; 2) for a contender; 3) in a major, cosmopolitan city. Chicago can offer him nos. 1 and 3 next season, but 2 seems awfully unlikely, even though they'll probably be a playoff team next year. He may well take large offers from, say, Toronto (who could use an upgrade at PF to become a really elite team).

Losing both would hurt, though. Portis looks like an eventual starter at PF, but he's not ready for that role on a contending team. Gibson can start and contribute, but isn't a top-shelf guy. And there's no center whatsoever if both Noah and Gasol go, so that would further hurt continuity as they integrate a guy newly added.

[the captain]

Well SMiLE Brian, it ain't over yet: a big Bulls win over Cleveland (and no Indiana game) means Chicago is still in the playoff hunt. And the surprise hero, Cristiano Felicio, of all people! 16 points (on 7-7 FG!), 5 rebounds and 2 blocks off the bench in just 23 minutes.

[SMiLE Brian]

Yeah captain, the Bulls still have a lot of fight left in them! I hope they steal that final playoff spot and shock a team or two in the playoffs!

[the captain]

I'm not betting on it, but it's possible. They would make for a scary 8 seed, because the reality is that (however unlikely, based on this season) they have a talented and experienced roster. I can't imagine them beating the Cavs in a series, but they could get a couple of games, which means less rest for James, Irving, etc., as they try to beat out Toronto and others before facing the nightmare that is Golden State, San Antonio, or even OKC.

[SMiLE Brian]

Captain, what are your hopes for the wolves next year?

[the captain]

Captain, what are your hopes for the wolves next year?

Playoffs. I think Karl-Anthony Town is a sure-thing all-star next year: I'd say 90+% chance, barring injuries. Wiggins has proven he's a 20+ ppg scorer (and potential all-star). LaVine, especially the latter half of the season, has started looking like a legitimate starter, a remarkable athlete, really good shooter (especially as he improves his footwork and other technical deficiencies). Rubio is a flat-out winner, the most underrated starting PG in the league just because he doesn't shoot well (though he has improved since the break as well). There are decisions to make regarding depth and complementary roles, and especially regarding coaching and the GM role. I expect that GM Milt Newton will be retained--he has been guaranteed authority through the draft and free agent season, and there's no sense in giving him that if you're just going to fire him afterward. But I think Mitchell is gone as coach, though he's done an admirable job in a rough situation. Too many good coaches are out there (D'Antoni, Thibodeau, Brooks, Van Gundy, Walton, etc.) and this job is somewhat suddenly too attractive to stick with Mitchell. But owner Glen Taylor is loyal, so I guess we'll see.

So, yeah, I truly think competing for the playoffs is entirely realistic. I'd be very disappointed if we're not in the playoff hunt next season, maybe in a 6-8 seed range. And this core--the guys mentioned above--are good enough to be a championship contending core if the stars align and other pieces work out just right. KAT is going to be an MVP candidate when he hits his prime. I'd bet a large sum on that.