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Mr. Verlander
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« Reply #275 on: December 31, 2014, 04:05:58 AM »

Detroit is now 3 for 3 in games since Smith was booted. Last night, Jodie Meeks had 34 points on 9 for 11 shooting behind the arc, with 20 points coming in the 2nd quarter. Andre Drummond is starting to look like a beast. The next 2 games are at New York and Sacramento at home, 2 very winnable games.

Are the Pistons really a good team? Probably not. They still have a lot of work to do. Out of the last 3 wins, 2 of those teams are also teams that stink (Indiana and Orlando), and 1 against the Cavs who are probably about to send their coach packing. It isn't like they just beat 3 teams from the West. Still, it's nice to see that they probably won't go down as a historically bad team, just a regular bad one.
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the captain
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« Reply #276 on: December 31, 2014, 05:35:36 AM »

The Pistons definitely aren't objectively good, but they weren't really supposed to be anywhere near as bad as they looked those first months of the season, either. Remember, there was a lot of talk that they'd be in the hunt for a low playoff seed in the East. I think it seems like they are back on that kind of track again. It's pretty unlikely they can make up that ground they lost (and, assuming they have their 2015 1st rounder, it might be wise not to try), but even playing decent basketball and missing the playoffs the rest of the way might do them a lot of good. It might show Jennings, Drummond, KCP, etc., that playing the way SVG wants them to can work, giving them a head start for next year.

Wolves dropped another one last night, in Utah. Rubio, Martin and Pekovic are all still out.
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« Reply #277 on: December 31, 2014, 06:28:37 AM »

I'd like to see them play better, although getting that Okafor kid from Duke would be pretty nice. I don't know much about next year's draft, so I'm not sure whether there's anyone out there worth tanking for. Everyone supposedly 'tanked' last year because the draft was supposed to be mind-blowingly incredible, and a lot of those 'can't miss' guys haven't done much yet.

Jodi Meeks almost set the Pistons record for 3 pointers last night with 9 made. The record is 10, by none other than Joe Dumars, against-you guessed it!-Minnesota.
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the captain
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« Reply #278 on: December 31, 2014, 07:08:22 AM »

A few things: tanking in general, this year's rookies, and next year's draft prospects.

Tanking (in general). I think it is, to some extent, a valid course of action in certain circumstances and with proper expectations. What circumstances? For example, a team like Detroit this year could have given Josh Smith 35 mpg. Caron Butler, same thing. They could have tried to minimize Drummond's minutes, saying he isn't polished yet (which is true). They might have won a couple more games and either just barely made or missed the playoffs. Odds are, that team ends up with a bad record, a pick between 12-16, and still no real hope for the future. Conversely, you can play your younger guys with the understanding that you're probably going to lose a few more games and are not going to make the playoffs, and your pick is in the 4-8 range (with better odds for landing a top 3 pick in the lottery). For me, that isn't tanking for a player. Very, very rarely would it make sense to tank for a specific player, for this reason: you have no reasonable assurance of getting him. And tanking doesn't have to mean pulling a Philly, and totally dismantling your team to be devoid of NBA talent altogether. That's not a good idea, in my opinion. You can be more competitive on the court and still be bad enough to build your team.

This year's rookies, aka "was it worth it?" I think this year's rookie class has a LOT of promise. It's always important to keep in mind the reality of history with this sort of thing. The odds of multiple rookies coming out as immediate all-stars are very, very low. In fact, I can't recall any such instance. The vaunted 2003 draft class, easily the best in recent NBA history, had precisely ZERO all-stars that first year. King James was not an all-star, and neither was Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Darko Milicic (that one's for you, Verlander!), Carmelo Anthony, or any of the others. While we're used to being sick of our rookies long before they arrive in the league thanks to the hype they start getting by the time they're in their mid-teens, the truth is that most rookies--even those who go on to good or great things--are average or worse as rookies.

True, only two are averaging double-digits in scoring (Andrew Wiggins at about 13 and Jabari Parker ending up at 12.5 before getting hurt). But Wiggins is actually around 16 ppg the past 10 games, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his average keep going up. It's obvious to anyone watching that he's getting far better, far more aggressive. Parker is out of course, but his average was lower than you'd think because Kidd plays a TON of people a ton of minutes: 12 guys average 13 or more minutes per game! So yeah, he gets his 12.5, but it's on 49% shooting while he's splitting time with Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, Jared Dudley, and Johnny O'Bryant. In short, for these and other guys, there are a lot of reasons to explain the mediocre results, whether major transitions, a particular fixable flaw, logjams, team priorities, etc.

Then moving down the list of rookies, I still have pretty high expectations or hopes for a lot of guys. I don't see a superstar, but I could imagine one or more all-star appearances or at least a long career as a starter from any of this group: Nikola Mirotic, Zack LaVine, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum. I can still imagine very good careers for Gary Harris, Jusuf Nurkic, KJ McDaniels, Nerlens Noel, Doub McDermott, Kostas Papanikolau, James Ennis, Nick Johnson, Kyle Anderson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, PJ Hairston ... just to name some. If something close to that many guys ends up being long-time players, with even just a few as occasional all-stars, that is a good class. That's what history would tell us.

2015 Draft Class. It's impossible to say ahead of time because we're not sure who is coming out, but it looks good. Really good. Probably not quite as good as 2014, but pretty close, actually. It's an especially deep class of post players (mostly PFs), with freshmen Jahlil Okafor of Duke; Karl Towns and Trey Lyles of Kentucky; Kevon Looney of UCLA; Cliff Alexander of Kansas; Jacob Poeltl of Utah; and Myles Turner of Texas. Then sophomores Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee of Kentucky; Bobby Portis of Arkansas; Chris Walker of Florida. Then juniors Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky (if you're counting, that is five Kentucky post players who could be first rounders in a single year. Not players. Post players.) and Montrezl Harrell of Louisville. And then senior Frank Kaminsky of Wisconsin. Oh, then also Latvian Kristaps Porzingis and Turkish Egemen Guven. That's just post players. I know you think you don't need any, but since Greg Monroe is leaving... (let's not kid ourselves) you could use a PF! You'd want a shooter, so of that batch, Towns, Lyles, and Kaminsky make a lot of sense as guys who could theoretically play with Drummond.

Besides that, there are guys like Emmanuel Mudiay at PG, D'Angelo Russell at combo guard, Mario Hezonjia and Stanley Johnson at wing, etc. It's a good class. There's no Michael Jordan, no Lebron James, but plenty of good players.
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« Reply #279 on: December 31, 2014, 11:56:36 AM »

Holy sh*t. Do you google these facts, or are they swimming in your head? Maybe you could be the next GM of the Timberwolves. Kinda like that cat down in Houston that everyone talks about, isn't it Daryl Morey? One of those stats guys? Your press conferences would be incredible; you'd without a doubt be the first GM to do one wearing a 'Pet Sounds' T-shirt.
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the captain
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« Reply #280 on: December 31, 2014, 12:16:40 PM »

Holy sh*t. Do you google these facts, or are they swimming in your head? Maybe you could be the next GM of the Timberwolves. Kinda like that cat down in Houston that everyone talks about, isn't it Daryl Morey? One of those stats guys? Your press conferences would be incredible; you'd without a doubt be the first GM to do one wearing a 'Pet Sounds' T-shirt.

My main points, I always know. The specifics, I look up. (So for example, I know roughly what a guy averages or averaged, or have ideas about who was in what draft class and what happened, etc., but I'll double check to make sure I'm not wrong, or to get the exact numbers, and so on.)

The difference between me and a Daryl Morey--other than millions of dollars a year!--is that I don't believe in analytics to run a basketball team. I think stats are useful and you can gain insights from them, but there is also a certain amount of feel and art to basketball. Production isn't mechanical, there are people involved. So the exact same skill set and physical ability in two people would, in my opinion, result in dramatically different outcomes/careers.

Examples? How about the fact that there were two universally acclaimed big men in the HS class of 1993, Rasheed Wallace out of Simon Gratz in Philly and Rashard Griffith out of King in Chicago. If anything, Griffith was higher regarded. He was the far better offensive player and was a couple inches taller. Now let's think back at how it turned out for them... Or how about 2003, with Lebron James and his near-coequal, Lenny Cooke? Remember Lenny Cooke? (Didn't think so.) The list is almost endless, and I know it! That's why I am different than Daryl Morey!

That said, I would totally wear BBs t-shirts to press conferences. And speaking of press conferences, I used to cover the Gophers and Wolves in my college and just post-college days. My favorite one ever was when Indiana visited the Gophers in the since-vacated Final Four season of 1996-97. Everyone in the local press was badgering opposing coaches for quotes about Bobby Jackson, our All-Conference and I think All-American that year. (They were all working all year on the inevitable end of year stories about the greatness of our star.) Bobby Knight was still at Indiana and wasn't in the mood to sing the praises of our little 6-1 combo guard, great as he is. I believe just to prove a point and be contrarian, when asked about him, Knight responded "if there were one guy on that team I'd want on my team, it would be John Thomas."

Now, John Thomas was good, a 6-9 senior banger. Local kid from Roosevelt HS, a role player who knew and filled his role. That year I think he averaged about 9 ppg and 7 rpg. Hardly the answer you'd expect.

The reporter who asked the question followed up. "Why?"

"Because I know a hell of a lot more about basketball than you do," Knight responded sharply, as he left the room...
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« Reply #281 on: December 31, 2014, 01:33:27 PM »

Wasn't that the best team in Gophers history? Or pretty close to it? I remember them, obviously because I'm a Big Ten guy. That was the Clem Haskins era. Actually, I remember a couple of years after that, the school got busted for academic fraud. It had to have been 1998? I remember because a bunch of guys got suspended from playing in the tournament, and it broke my bracket.
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the captain
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« Reply #282 on: December 31, 2014, 01:53:00 PM »

It was definitely one of the best teams in Gophers history. Bill Musselman had some great teams in the '70s and Jim Dutcher had some good ones in the 70s and 80s. Sadly, pretty much every good Gophers team in history has been erased from various scandals.

The academic scandal that ended the Clem Haskins era happened just before the 1999 NCAA Tournament (98-99 season), and left the Gophers facing Gonzaga without several key players. (Ironically, we then hired Gonzaga's coach, Dan Monson.)

The Final Four team was fantastic, though.

PG - Eric Harris, a NYC guy from St. Raymond's in the Bronx, really, really tough on defense and debuted that year a nice new jumper from about 15 feet. Went from a footnote to a key player.
SG - Bobby Jackson, a freak at 6-1, rebounding in the 5-7 rpg range, getting 4 apg or so, plus his 16 ppg or whatever it was. Not a real shooter, but just inspirational...
SF - Sam Jacobson. Hometown kid from the St. Paul suburbs, a 6-6 athletic wing who could hit the 3.
PF - Courtney James, a hulk of a man at 6-8, would have made the NBA but was booted from the team after beating his girlfriend after that season...
C - John Thomas, aforementioned.

So that's three future NBA players (Jackson, Thomas, Jacobson).

Bench included future NBA player Quincy Lewis at a wing, future cup-of-coffee NBA player Trevor Winter as backup center, nice little shooter Charles Thomas at SG, rebounding specialist and funny guy Miles Tarver. It was a team that defended like crazy both inside and out, but also could get out and score points. There were some great wins that year.

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« Reply #283 on: December 31, 2014, 02:24:05 PM »

And of course, Dan Monson's father, Don, was an assistant under Jud Heathcote at MSU. Dan Monson might've had more success if he didn't have the sanctions to deal with.

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the captain
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« Reply #284 on: December 31, 2014, 02:34:17 PM »

Right on all counts. Don became something of a fixture here once Dan was hired. And Dan has gone on to some good success with Long Beach St. He had a rough time here and got criticized, maybe sometimes unfairly. He was actually a pretty good recruiter in his time here, having brought in two of the four (I think, off the top of my head) McDonald's All-Americans the program ever had. He brought in Kris Humphries (Hopkins) and Rick Rickert (Duluth East). The other two were Joel Przybilla (Monticello) and Jim Petersen (St. Louis Park). And yes, that means we've never landed an out-of-state McDonald's All-American. And in fact we've lost about five or six in-state ones (Khalid El-Amin to UConn, Cole Aldrich to Kansas, Rashad Vaughn to UNLV, Reid Travis to Stanford, and Tyus Jones to Duke).

Monson had a really talented early 00s team that could/should have done better. But honestly, his most talented team went down the toilet for chemistry reasons purportedly caused by Kris Humphries ... or more accurately, his dad, who reportedly was trying to run the team. Humphries came to a good team and had a statistically great season while the team was just AWFUL. He was a lottery pick and the team was decimated. After that, Monson struggled to find a balance between recruiting talent and chemistry. I think he erred on the latter, thanks in large part to one less talented but overachieving team that focused on Vincent Grier, a versatile JuCo wing. From then on, the talent was just terrible.
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« Reply #285 on: December 31, 2014, 03:21:09 PM »

Totally irrelevant to anything we've been discussing, but I just learned there is an upcoming documentary on my favorite--OK, favorite isn't quite the right word, but neither is it quite the wrong word--basketball player ever, Lloyd "Swee' Pea" Daniels, the 6-7 NYC playground legend, once the next Magic Johnson, the man whose crack-house arrest kept him from being a part of the great late 80s and early 90s UNLV teams (OK, that an obvious academic ineligibility), the guy who somehow got to the NBA anyway, the guy who tried to impress his JuCo tutor by showing her how well he could read ... as he held up two books at once (somehow thinking that was impressive, "reading" two books simultaneously).

I'm so excited. And I just can't hide it. I'm about to lose control, and I think I like it.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/646463363/the-legend-of-swee-pea
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« Reply #286 on: January 01, 2015, 07:32:15 AM »

Josh Smith update. So, remember that 39% FG and 24% 3pt he had going in Detroit? Through four games with Houston, he's at 34% FG and 16.6% 3pt. You'd think by playing off James Harden and Dwight Howard, he would be able to pick his spots and thus shoot a high percentage. I haven't seen a Houston game since the signing, but apparently that is not the case for Mr. Smith.

Tonight the Wolves face Sacramento. DeMarcus Cousins was ejected last night for a scuffle with rookie PG Marcus Smart. I haven't seen anything as to further suspension or anything, but it sure would be nice if he were absent tonight.
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« Reply #287 on: January 01, 2015, 11:24:47 AM »

He had a big first game with Houston, and then hasn't done anything. I think part of it is that he's just getting older, and he doesn't have the hops that he used to. And the fact that he just plain sucks at shooting the ball anywhere from beyond 5 feet.
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« Reply #288 on: January 01, 2015, 02:12:13 PM »

Nothing to do with basketball, but if you get the chance to watch highlights, watch the ones from the Cotton Bowl- Michigan State Vs. Baylor. Unbelievable. I about puked 3 times.
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« Reply #289 on: January 01, 2015, 02:17:58 PM »

I caught a few bits of the game before the Gophers v Missouri bowl game began. That started great, ended horribly. Totally outclassed in the second half, unfortunately. Some dumb mistakes, some bad luck.
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« Reply #290 on: January 03, 2015, 08:09:37 AM »

Detroit is now 3 for 3 in games since Smith was booted. Last night, Jodie Meeks had 34 points on 9 for 11 shooting behind the arc, with 20 points coming in the 2nd quarter. Andre Drummond is starting to look like a beast. The next 2 games are at New York and Sacramento at home, 2 very winnable games.

Are the Pistons really a good team? Probably not. They still have a lot of work to do. Out of the last 3 wins, 2 of those teams are also teams that stink (Indiana and Orlando), and 1 against the Cavs who are probably about to send their coach packing. It isn't like they just beat 3 teams from the West. Still, it's nice to see that they probably won't go down as a historically bad team, just a regular bad one.

4-0 since the trade. So jealous. Brewer for Daniels has had no such effect... But Kevin Martin could be back within a week, with Rubio and Pekovic expected back by mid-month. 45 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists more per game? Can't hurt...
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« Reply #291 on: January 03, 2015, 01:07:41 PM »

You can't stop the Detroit Pistons, you can only hope to contain them.

Seriously, it isn't like they've really played anybody. New York is horrible. The difference is, you can tell that they're having fun out there. Jodi Meeks has been a huge difference maker.

Minnesota almost won against Sacramento the other night, didn't they? I thought I remembered seeing that it was a pretty close game.
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« Reply #292 on: January 03, 2015, 03:33:02 PM »

Yeah they've had their moments, but 10 straight losses is 10 straight losses. Tonight is Utah (in Mpls, I believe). We'll see.
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« Reply #293 on: January 04, 2015, 04:11:35 AM »

Trey Burke had a pretty good game-28 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists.

Looks like Minnesota had Wiggins and Mo Williams doing the work. Zach LaVine had only 2 assists and turned it over 3 times. Ouch. You can't help but think that this team would be about 3-5 wins better with their full rotation in action.

I haven't paid much attention to Utah; I was surprised to see Dante Exum come off of the bench, especially as much hype as he got leading up to the draft.
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« Reply #294 on: January 04, 2015, 05:50:57 AM »

I don't think Exum has started a game all season. Fact is, while he's a dynamite prospect, he is nowhere near ready. The thing to keep in mind is, for all his talent, before coming to the NBA, he was playing Australian high school basketball. Forget Spanish league, college, or even smaller pro leagues. Australian HS. It will take him a while to build the strength while also fine-tuning his skills.

Burke destroyed the Wolves, as he always does. I don't know what it is.

LaVine is actually really comparable to Exum (though a better shooter), with the problem being he doesn't have the luxury of playing no-to-few minutes a game anymore. While he isn't competent to be playing significant minutes at the NBA PG position, fact is we just need him to. I like him more now than I did on draft night. Far more. But it sure will be nice having him play smaller handfuls of minutes, rather than starting...

Speaking of those win totals if we had our starters, I honestly think five more wins would be on the low end of things. Rubio in particular changes things so dramatically, and he was playing really, really well this year. He impacts the defense with his tremendous ball-pressure and leadership, and on offense he just keeps things moving along. The team has been clueless on both ends without him. Then Martin, that's 20 ppg and the team's best 3-pt threat by far. Pekovic? While he had a slow start, he's among the best two or three offensive post players in the league and is simply immovable. Not to mention,m him and Dieng can share center minutes and give you two diverse styles, both effective, all game long. Conversely, Pekovic's (and Turiaf's, before the trade) absence means Jeff Adrien, Robbie Hummel, or Anthony Bennett has to fill some 10-20 minutes per game at center. Ouch.

I was very, very disappointed in that game last night. Utah was on the tail end of a back-to-back, on our home court, and somehow we were the ones lacking energy. That's something you don't see if Rubio is on the floor.
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« Reply #295 on: January 04, 2015, 11:56:53 AM »

Sort of off the topic a bit, I was saddened to see that Stuart Scott passed away. Damn shame, and at a pretty young age.
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« Reply #296 on: January 04, 2015, 12:33:08 PM »

Yes, I know he's been on and off air over recent years with some form of cancer. That's (obviously) what took him. But hey, I believe the stat is something like 40% of people will be diagnosed with some cancer, sometime. So I guess that's how it goes...
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« Reply #297 on: January 05, 2015, 10:47:37 AM »

Apparently, if Detroit had gotten rid of Smith before the season began, they'd be undefeated! They have a couple of big games coming up, San Antonio and Dallas. That should be a good indicator.
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« Reply #298 on: January 05, 2015, 12:08:39 PM »

Whereas I expect Denver to top the wolves tonight by, oh, 15-20. Just because it's been that kind of season since Rubio went down.
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« Reply #299 on: January 05, 2015, 12:59:59 PM »

How 'bout them Golden State Warriors, eh?
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