How much can BW be expected to sell?

[lance]

When Brian Wilson puts out a solo album, how much do you think he will autmotacally sell, to die-hard fans like us? I mean, I expect that most of us on this board would buy a Brian Wilson solo album, right even it were not on a par with Pet Sounds. The question is, how many of us are there?

I remember reading something that stated that BWPS had sold something like 300 000 in the USA and another 100 000 in the UK--but obviously Smile is going to sell more than, say, Imagination.

[HighOnLife]

I'd say about 15-20,000 copies the first week.

[the captain]

I don't know much about the sales figures themselves, but I'd imagine it will have its best weeks right away, the first week or two (as Smile did if I recall), just because of people like us and any (fingers crossed) promotional hype. But without some good marketing, I can't imagine it will continue to sell well over time, so it would likely hit a steep decline after that. As for whether it is in the BWPS territory or the GIOMH territory, I think marketing has the most to do with that: can they reach out to new audiences, or the same old fanatics?

[Awesoman]

I don't know much about the sales figures themselves, but I'd imagine it will have its best weeks right away, the first week or two (as Smile did if I recall), just because of people like us and any (fingers crossed) promotional hype. But without some good marketing, I can't imagine it will continue to sell well over time, so it would likely hit a steep decline after that. As for whether it is in the BWPS territory or the GIOMH territory, I think marketing has the most to do with that: can they reach out to new audiences, or the same old fanatics?

You also have to factor in that Brian Wilson is a senior citizen at this point; it's hard to shred through the Billboard charts largely influenced by a younger generation who wouldn't get the album to begin with.  Then again, other aging artists such as Bob Dylan and most recently Neil Diamond have made some surprising success with their latest albums debuting at #1.  And Brian's upcoming album appears to be a much more creative, more focused album than Gettin' In Over My Head (we can only hope).  So there is a possibility with the right kind of buzz it could possibly garner some decent sales. 

[Pretty Funky]

Considering the markets size, and I'm thinking 40 plus age group, white, MOTR etc, what would be regarded as a success?

[elnombre]

It depends entirely on promotion, particularly in the UK. If, for instance The Times, The Guardian and so on include features on the album as well as the usual suspects like MOJO, all the better. Of course in the case of BWPS, if I remember rightly, the documentary aired on BBC2 a few days before the album's release. That kind of exposure's got to contribute heavily to its success.

When all's said and done, I'd rather hear Brian put out something creative rather than commercial, and TLOS fits the bill. Whether its a commercial success or not, if properly executed I'm sure this will be looked back on retrospectively as a great latter-day piece of work from the guy.

I'd say about 15-20,000 copies the first week.

If you're talking U.S. sales only, I'd be inclined to agree.

[Surfer Joe]

Brian's audience hasn't aged with him.  The music is so strong that new generations of fans continue to come along in a steady stream- the same as with the Beatles. At the SMiLE concert here in Atlanta, we sat next to two University of Kentucky coeds who had driven down from Lexington (about seven hours).  They said, oddly enough, that they hadn't heard the album yet (though they each had a copy in hand from the souvenir stand) but had been swept away by news accounts and reviews.  During part of the show I turned to see how they were reacting and they looked rapturous. I gave them a questioning look and they both smiled and nodded violently- yes, they were loving it. They could have been my daughters, and I was born ten days after Beach Boys Today! was issued.

Yeah, a lot- maybe most- of the audience is older, but you never know. I wonder what the average age on this board is? I also wonder how many of us hardcore, lifelong, "Living Doll"-listening, 1999 gas station car song promo disc owning, original linen-mounted "Girls On The Beach" 3-sheet on the wall BW nuts- you know the kind I mean-  there are.  I guess the sales figures for the Pet Sounds box would be a fair ballpark figure, as far as dividing the men and women from the boys and girls, and I know that didn't do really well. I figure I personally know about five of us  in my travels in real life- people, for example, who unquestionably will own TLOS the day it comes out.

For what it's worth, it seems like once I heard the figure sixty thousand attached to one of Paul McCartney's recent releases- Driving Rain, I think. Not sure if that was first week or  total, provided I remembered it accurately.

[Shady]

I have no doubts TLOS will be as big as BWPS.

As Pvt. Gripweed said, it's most likely gonna shift 15-20,000 in it's first week and go on to be a steady seller like BWPS

[lance]

When all's said and done, I'd rather hear Brian put out something creative rather than commercial, and TLOS fits the bill. Whether its a commercial success or not, if properly executed I'm sure this will be looked back on retrospectively as a great latter-day piece of work from the guy.


Just to be clear, I'd rather he put out something creative rather than commercial too--to be honest, I think when you are an older musician creative=commercial in a way--in other words, the better it is, the more it will sell(if properly promoted.)

I don't know but it the question just occurred to me: How much is a Brian Wilson release automatically going to sell, even if it's bad, or, er, less creative?

Knowing how much Paul McCartney CD's sell is a good comparison.

I don't know if TLOS will match Smile; I just think Smile ought not to be considered because the trappings of history and legend accompany it much more than they will TLOS.

I don't know if he will have a number one like Dylan--I have always thought of Dylan as sort of a force of nature. But maybe BW will make a big comeback(commercially.) I generally don't care about these things, but I hope he does. It would be nice if more people appreciated his/Beach Boys music.

[Amy B.]

I can't imagine that Capitol is expecting that TLOS will sell incredibly well. I assume they signed him with the notion that he's sort of a "prestige artist" for them at this point, particularly since McCartney is at Starbucks now. I do hope TLOS is offered digitally-- Brian does have a lot of younger fans who might be more inclined to download than buy a CD.

They ought to do a promo on iTunes-- a free, downloadable bio, a podcast, a free track, or something.
It would also be great if they could market Brian's album alongside the BBs' collection. The BBs sell far better than Brian, and some casual fans are not aware that Brian has a solo career (although those fans might not like TLOS).

[Roger Ryan]

I have no doubts TLOS will be as big as BWPS.

In a sense, BWPS had about 38 years of pre-publicity; there's no way TLOS can compete with that. At the same time, if enough reviewers call TLOS Brian's worthy follow-up to BWPS, it will do better than any other solo Brian album (apart from BWPS).

[TonyW]

A few people following this thread might find the following info interesting - its a bit off topic but relevant to music sales. Its an Australian current affairs type show where they discuss music piracy and touch on alternate marketing/distribution models: Here is the link for both streaming and the transcript:

http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/mitunes_548047

[Andrew G. Doe]

I have no doubts TLOS will be as big as BWPS

BWPS had something like 37 years of advance publicity: I doubt TLOS will chart anything like as high or sell anything like as much.

As Pvt. Gripweed said, it's most likely gonna shift 15-20,000 in it's first week and go on to be a steady seller like BWPS

Contrary to common belief, BWPS is not a steady seller: some 3½ years after release and it's still not sold 500,000 in the US. The predictions of it going gold by Xmas 2004 were way out. The vast bulk of the sales were in the first month.

[Surfer Joe]

Yeah, I agree. BWPS couldn't have been more of a unique situation, plus it had Brian's peak songwriting and arranging from 1966-67 to propel it, much of that work completely new to the general public, and it had a huge iconic song on it in "Good Vibrations". The nature of it meant that most of the publicity was free- was there any major news outlet that didn't cover it? How many of your friends said this to you in 2004: "Oh, you're a big Beach Boys fan, right?  Did you see that thing the other day about..."  All pretty hard to compete with.

One thing I will add, though- the success of BWPS should have some coattails for TLOS.

[Matt H]

Does anyone know what Capital's expectations are?  Would reaching the top 50 and selling 100K be sufficient?  I just wonder what they realistically think will happen.

I have no doubts TLOS will be as big as BWPS

BWPS had something like 37 years of advance publicity: I doubt TLOS will chart anything like as high or sell anything like as much.

As Pvt. Gripweed said, it's most likely gonna shift 15-20,000 in it's first week and go on to be a steady seller like BWPS

Contrary to common belief, BWPS is not a steady seller: some 3½ years after release and it's still not sold 500,000 in the US. The predictions of it going gold by Xmas 2004 were way out. The vast bulk of the sales were in the first month.

[joe_blow]

One thing to consider is that Brian is not a name brand per say along the lines of Bob Dylan or Neil Diamond. Perhaps The Beach Boys, but not Brian as a solo artist. There are still a lot of co-workers of mine who vaguely recognize his name. BWPS did get a lot of press (maybe bad record company promotion), made it to # 13 in Billboard and failed to even get certified gold.

Something that people sometimes fail to realize is how sales calculations have changed over the years in the US. (I think it was done differently in the past)Notice now that more artists debut at #1 than before and then slide down the charts. In the past it was more common for albums to slowly climmb the charts. If retailers predict TLOS is going to be  a huge seller and order many copies to their shops, it will debut high. If nobody buys it after that week or two and retailers don't order many more copies,it will drop drastically. So the chart position on an albums first week is less of an indication on public consumption than it is on sales predictions from the retailers.

[Ron]

To be honest, I don't see how any of the record companies are making money off Brian.  Lets say he sells 100,000 copies.  They can't  be making more than 6 or 7 dollars off a cd if Wal Mart is selling them for 8 or 9 bucks, so their total take is 600,000 bucks, and they have to pay everybody involved, pay promotion, pay to ship it, etc. 

I guess maybe they're holding out that he'll hit it big and they'll have a double platinum album on their hands and make 10 or 12 million dollars, but I'd think 100,000 records would just about break you even.

[Pretty Funky]

It's probably a bit like book publishing which my wife knows a bit about.

You don't want to turn anything down because they could be the next JK Rowling offering you a Harry Potter!
 

[Amy B.]

To be honest, I don't see how any of the record companies are making money off Brian. 

That's why I think they consider him a prestige artist-- not someone who will sell a lot, but someone who they can name on their roster.
Or, here's a morbid thought-- Brian has had a hard life and is now nearly 66. Artists sell more after they die, and here's Brian's biographical statement, TLOS. Surely it will be a big seller some day...

Sleazy, but record companies aren't past it.

[Ron]

Statistically speaking, anybody that makes it to 65 has a high chance of making it to 80... the life expectancy rates take in infant mortality, people murdered, dying in car wrecks, etc.  So far Brian's survived all that, he'll probably be around a while longer.  Also in Country music, there's tons of guys in their 70s' and even 80's that still perform several times a week, and pretty much still have it.  So if all that Whiskey didn't kill them, I doubt the drugs and drink Brian kicked years ago are going to kill him.

[shelter]

I think that, more than for any other artist, the album reviews will be extremely important. If they'll be mostly negative or indifferent, it will be an album for hardcore fans only. If there will be reviews like "His best new work in 40 years!" or "This time Brian's REALLY back!", I think it could sell as well as BWPS. I think you shouldn't underestimate the number of people who aren't necessarily BB/BW fans, but who are aware of BW's history and are to a certain extend fascinated by him. So I think it'll make a huge difference if the media labels this as something essential or not.

[Matt H]

Does anyone know how many units were sold of BWPS in the first month, and then afterwards in the US? 

Were those figures considered a major success?

Contrary to common belief, BWPS is not a steady seller: some 3½ years after release and it's still not sold 500,000 in the US. The predictions of it going gold by Xmas 2004 were way out. The vast bulk of the sales were in the first month.

[Dancing Bear]

I think that, more than for any other artist, the album reviews will be extremely important. If they'll be mostly negative or indifferent, it will be an album for hardcore fans only. If there will be reviews like "His best new work in 40 years!" or "This time Brian's REALLY back!"

That's the problem with new Brian Wilson product. BW'88 and Imagination were strongly hyped as comebacks. GIOMH not so much, but I don't remember reading a single bad review.

How many times since 1976 are you able to claim that Brian's back and make people pay attention?

[elnombre]

I think that, more than for any other artist, the album reviews will be extremely important. If they'll be mostly negative or indifferent, it will be an album for hardcore fans only. If there will be reviews like "His best new work in 40 years!" or "This time Brian's REALLY back!"

That's the problem with new Brian Wilson product. BW'88 and Imagination were strongly hyped as comebacks. GIOMH not so much, but I don't remember reading a single bad review.

Q Magazine gave it 2-stars if I recall correctly.

[Andrew G. Doe]

Statistically speaking, anybody that makes it to 65 has a high chance of making it to 80... the life expectancy rates take in infant mortality, people murdered, dying in car wrecks, etc.  So far Brian's survived all that, he'll probably be around a while longer.  Also in Country music, there's tons of guys in their 70s' and even 80's that still perform several times a week, and pretty much still have it.  So if all that Whiskey didn't kill them, I doubt the drugs and drink Brian kicked years ago are going to kill him.

I've a feeling Brian's constitution isn't nearly as robust as that of the average 66-year-old... and never forget, what did the real damage were the meds Landy pumped him full of 1982-92.